[ceejayoz]

The debt-to-GDP ratio the US currently carries has been seen before. The raw number is high, but so is the GDP.

$1M in credit card debt would sink me. For Jeff Bezos, it doesn’t even rise to his personal attention.

> Someone has lost a lot of money (presumably China and Japan). How could the US pay them back without resorting to fantasy?

I can’t pay my mortgage in full right now. That doesn’t mean my bank loses money on the loan.

China and Japan are getting paid on their loans, at the agreed upon amounts. They will continue to be paid.

[roenxi]

> The debt-to-GDP ratio the US currently carries has been seen before.

In the middle of a world war, facing a level of emergency that left civilisations of more than one continent shattered and reordered the world as it was known. As an emergency spike that lasted for around 5 years before they started paying people back. And although the debt was staggering and the US economy was in its prime as a global manufacturing superpower.

This is obviously different, the US government has just been spending because they can. If they even try to pay this debt off it'd be stupid. From the US perspective, why even bother? They're basically already committed.

> I can’t pay my mortgage in full right now. That doesn’t mean my bank loses money on the loan.

In that case you've defaulted on your mortgage. You may get on well with the US government.

And the bank may or may not be losing money for all I care, but on net the creditors to the US are clearly losing money. The numbers are too big for any other outcome.

[ceejayoz]

> In the middle of a world war

We're just getting out of a world pandemic.

> In that case you've defaulted on your mortgage.

No, I'm making the agreed-upon payments, just like the US is on their debt. I can't pay off the whole loan today, there's twenty years left on it. Similarly, the US can't pay off 108% of GDP today, but they can over the decades-long timespan of those debts.

[roenxi]

> We're just getting out of a world pandemic.

The US couldn't pay its debts before COVID either. The pandemic hasn't changed the US's long term prospects for servicing its debt even slightly. The future was default in 2019 and it remains default now in 2022. The only interesting questions are when and what form the default will take.

I mean, are you trying to be serious here? How do you think those debts will be payed down? Who do you think will be involved? What timeline?

What evidence?

> No, I'm making the agreed-upon payments

Oh ok, I thought you meant you weren't making them. Well, assuming you intend to keep that approach up there is no place for you in the halls of government. You are heading for a future where you might pay your debts in full!

[ceejayoz]

> How do you think those debts will be payed down?

The US debt-to-GDP ratio is a bit over 100%.

With my mortgage, mine's higher than that, and I don't have a central bank under my control to tinker with things. No one questions my ability to pay off my thirty year loans; current interest rates on US debt indicate no one seriously believes your assertion that a US default is at all likely, let alone probable.

(Argentina's bond rate is 75.00%, reflecting their history of default and likelihood it'll continue. The US borrows at 2.90% right now.)

When my mortgage is mostly paid down, I'm likely to refinance and take on additional debt, perhaps for home improvements or a newer house. Just like the US does as it makes its debt payments.

[roenxi]

You're a lovely bloke. I don't care about your mortgage.

Describe to me, in concrete terms, ideally using the names of the politicians you think might be involved, the voting demographics, the years and values, etc, how you think the US is going to make a start on paying down its debts in real terms.

We all know what is going to happen. They're taking in real resources, they're going to give a lot less back and pretend there is a meaningful difference between not paying off all the debt and defaulting on debt. Which there is not.

[ceejayoz]

> Describe to me, in concrete terms, ideally using the names of the politicians you think might be involved, the voting demographics, the years and values, etc, how you think the US is going to make a start on paying down its debts in real terms.

The US will continue to carry a debt load. With inflation and a sub-3% borrowing rate, it's essentially free money - we pay $400B a year in interest to access $30T. Again, we've done this for hundreds of years; it's not gonna suddenly stop being a functional bit of monetary policy.

By the end of my loan, my mortgage payments will be worth a lot less in real money, too - $1k ten years ago and $1k twenty years from now aren't the same. Creditors price this in from the beginning, whether it's my mortgage or a trillion dollars in US government bonds.

> pretend there is a meaningful difference between not paying off all the debt and defaulting on debt

This is just a silly statement. I don't think we can have a rational conversation about monetary policy if you think that.