[cogman10]

The TSMC fabs aren't idling. Between AMD, Intel, nVidia, Broadcom, Google, Amazon, etc. They've got customers with more demands for their chips than they have capacity to provide.

If apple doesn't go to them, I think the only other option is Samsung? But I don't know that Samsung's fabs are open to third parties.

[FullyFunctional]

Well, the facts are a little different. Apple is 25% of the volume on the latest nodes and Intel just had an awkward conversation with TSMC saying "Oh, those orders, no, we actually meant the year after", so Apple very much has TSMC "by the balls".

Samsung has produced parts for others for a Very Long Time, most famously NVIDIA (not "nVidia" since many decades) use(d) them.

[scarface74]

Nvidia just announced they have a glut of unsold inventory. They are the last company that is going to make up the slack.

[adventured]

> If apple doesn't go to them, I think the only other option is Samsung?

Shorter-term that's true.

Apple is well known at times to think longer term on logistics, strategy. If push comes to shove, there are two additional options for Apple.

1) Political. Taiwan not being China depends on the support of the US. Apple is a economic security prize for the US, a strategic asset. Apple can get powerful politicians in the US to lean on Taiwan, which can dictate TSMC's behavior to an extent. This would prompt increased compromise from TSMC (3-4% hike, not 6%).

2) Apple starts investing into fabs and builds a TSMC competitor from the ground up, perhaps in alignment with ASML (Europe very much wants an improved semiconductor context) and a few US partners (build the fabs in the US and Europe for national security purposes). Apple is one of the few companies where you have to take this potential seriously, they can safely bankroll it entirely by themselves if necessary.

[quintushoratius]

> But I don't know that Samsung's fabs are open to third parties.

They most definitely are, my employer has sent trial tape outs to them recently.