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by aqme28 1367 days ago
That "100%" analysis is very deeply flawed. The author of the video even issued a retraction (https://twitter.com/IglesiasYosha/status/1574308784566067201...).

It's cherry-picked games and it doesn't compare to the "engine correlation" of other high ranked players against similar opponents. I would not rely on it as evidence that Hans is "clearly cheating."
2 comments
patresh 1367 days ago
She says that the ROI probability calculation is wrong, which is the last part of her video and a separate topic.

The part about correlations has not been retracted AFAIK. I agree that there's a need for a baseline though, there is one example on her recent twitter feed but more samples are needed to get a better picture.

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rurban 1367 days ago
No it's not. Just the probability calculation had a few flaws. The string of 100% games, esp. in the few tournament games he needed a win, is decisive. Note that he played a lot of games in each tournament on the 70% level, to fool statistics.
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