[deadpannini]

I think you should perhaps cool down.

1) I am admitting that I was wrong and updated. That includes updating on my thought process, just like you are so ardently suggesting.

2) Ninety percent of your assumptions about me are wrong. I'm not sure what you're accusing me of, or what "many people were RIGHT" about.

> There's a canyon of difference between being wrong because you just didn't know and being wrong because the entire platform you were basing it on turned out to be wrong.

What is the "platform" I was basing it on?

[bombcar]

If I were to be charitable to the post you're replying to, they're trying to show that your takeaway is wrong - instead of saying you changed your mind based on new evidence you should instead say "I was wrong to think I had the knowledge, training, or skills to make a decision and use that decision to influence others".

[deadpannini]

Yes, and I agree that it's always important to keep that possibility in mind. I am generally keenly aware of uncertainty normally shy away from bad bets (predictions).

But taken too far, that principle leads to abdicating our responsibilities as citizens in a democracy, so while I was definitely chastened by the experience I will kindly decline the invitation to shut up: I choose to get better instead. The sum total of my influence on this matter has been, at worst, to encourage quicker and more widespread adoption of home tests, which falls very short of pernicious.

I'm quite puzzled by P5fRxh5kUvp2th's vitriol - maybe he or she is ardently pro-mask? Since I alluded to my low opinion of mask mandates (which I stand behind), that could explain it.

[bombcar]

Heh my knowledge has lead me to realize that the best course of action is for me to abdicate any democratic responsibilities because I clearly don’t know anything about anything.

[P5fRxh5kUvp2th]

Correct, imagine if they had recognized not having enough information and chose not to form an opinion that needed changing once more evidence was gathered?

Imagine if they had chosen not to be a loudmouth (their words), and thereby adding to the cacophony of uselessness that happened around that time?

The problem isn't that they reached the wrong conclusion, it's how __CONFIDENT__ they were in that conclusion despite NO ONE knowing enough about covid at the time.

[SR2Z]

Do you think that every single facet of the response we had to COVID was correct and useful?

The evidence does suggest that better testing could have reduced the death rate while also allowing for gentler, more calibrated responses.

Near zero? Not in the US - but in the places that DID achieve that feat, testing was critical.

You are being absurdly harsh. Many experts have been trained by decades of "peacetime" to be conservative with their assumptions and requests. Just think back to "stand six feet apart" and "you can take your mask off while eating" to see why that is a problem.