[naet]

You didn't change your mind, you made a specific prediction (testing will drive US covid cases to zero) and then maintained that position, and weren't shy about sharing it, until it was demonstrated to be wrong. Weren't you stubborn about your prediction, ignoring what other people had to say about it until you were irrefutably proven wrong?

[deadpannini]

I don't understand what you're suggesting - that changing your mind only counts if there's no evidence?

Even now, I can think of ways to argue that testing could still drive COVID nearly to zero in the US, most of which revolve around the idea that we're not really testing or we're not doing it right. But I think I was wrong, partly because of things other people said earlier during the pandemic, including parallel arguments about why "masks work" were wrong, which I saw right away, though I didn't draw the obvious conclusions related to the effectiveness of testing.

I think Kahneman's position requires creative gerrymandering about what counts as an important belief, and about what counts as persuasion.