Apple will definitely take the more casual part of the market, the folks going on day hikes. But Garmin will I think stay king among the more serious hikers. The battery life is the Achilles heel of the Apple Watch, it really needs to be at least ~3 days long before anyone serious is even going to consider it.
How many people buying the Garmin are only using it for day hikes, or a few day trips where they're taking along a mobile battery anyway to charge their phone to take photos. I'd guess the % of people who need 18 days of battery life is very small.
> I'd guess the % of people who need 18 days of battery life is very small.
It's not that you will need 18 days of battery life, it's simply knowing that you have it there. If you're going off for 3-4 days on a hike, there's a possibility your trip is getting extended by bad weather, wild animals, and whatnot. Knowing that's a possibility you always pack extra gear, and the idea of your main map on the trail dying is not an option.
The vast majority of people who walk are those doing long walks or day hikes rather than multi-day hikes. That's the audience Apple is targeting here.
That fits my use. I go on 1- to 4-hour walks pretty regularly and the existing Apple Watch is already helpful for rough distance/time/calorie tracking. If the Apple Watch didn't exist, I'd probably have a Garmin, but I'm pretty happy with the "good enough" tracking features on it. I like that the Ultra shows that they care about this market.
People need to understand the advertising is mostly aspirational. Just like most GoPro buyers film their trip down the intermediate downhill ski slope, not over a waterfall in a kayak or base jumping.
The extra battery life of the Ultra will be nice as will the new apps. Garmin still makes more serious "adventure" watches but for really hard-core mountaineering, I'm not sure to what degree people actually depend on watches that still need periodic charging.
I bet apple has a solar charger of some sort sitting in a table in their R&D department now: maybe it’s a strap, maybe it’s under the screen? I’m thinking it’ll just be for the watch and not the phones (they get too hot sitting in the sun) I think we’ll see it when satellite SOS comes to the watch.