[netcan]

Assuming both scenarios are equally likely:

   Option 1 Average ROI = 50%
   Option 1 Average ROI = 12.5%

High risk premium. A good time to take risks?.. if you can afford it.

[furiouslol]

Not for MS.

The probability of MS getting nationalized or going bankrupt is 90%. So it's 0.9 * 0 + 0.1 * 3 = 0.3 = -70%.

Whoops.

[netcan]

Probably not 0 is it?