[dragontamer]

Those guys have been calling for runaway inflation since 2011 though. So we ignore those permabears.

Calling "inflation" for 10 years in a row is basically boy-who-cried wolf. No one believes you, and when you're finally "correct" about it, its not because you had any analysis, its because inflation inevitably occurs in a boom/bust cycle.

Broken clock correct twice a day + Boy who cried wolf syndrome. I still won't be listening to the permabears / runaway inflation guys even with today's market conditions.

[ejb999]

Is the doctor who tells you for 30 years in a row that you should stop smoking because you will get lung cancer, only right in the year when you actually develop the cancer? Was the doctor 'crying wolf' for 29 years?

[dragontamer]

When the Fed printed a Trillion dollars in November 2008 through QE1, and those permabears think crazy hyperinflation will occur immediately, yes, we ignore them.

When they say inflation will occur in QE2 in 2010, and those permabears think crazy hyperinflation will occur immediately, then yes, we ignore them.

When they say inflation will occur in QE3 in 2012, and those permabears think crazy hyperinflation will occur immediately, then yes, we ignore them.

When they say inflation will occur in QE4 in 2020, and those permabears think crazy hyperinflation will occur immediately, then yes, we ignore them.

Now its 2022, the Fed has been Quantitative Tightening for a year to deal with the inflation signals we're finally seeing. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being effectively destroyed by these policies.

-------

So yes, the Fed is finally acting on the inflation issue. But only because the data shows it is finally a problem. We don't just take the permabear crowd word immediately, we move when the data shows an issue. Not before.

There's some people who are just noise and are irrelevant to the discussion, unfortunately. You figure these things out over the years.

[candiodari]

> We don't just take the permabear crowd word immediately, we move when the data shows an issue. Not before.

Following the data means you're inevitably running after the facts. Running after the facts inevitably causes feedback loops. I'm sure those feedback loops were tuned correctly to not blow the whole thing up, right. Right? RIGHT??

Say ... what happened last time? Oh ... right.

[dragontamer]

> Running after the facts inevitably causes feedback loops

No?

2008 through 2014 had signs of deflation, so the Fed lowered rates and went into QE.

2022 has signs of inflation, so the Fed increased interest rates.

Where is the feedback loop here?

[smileysteve]

It would be more appropriate to use something moderately healthy as opposed to "smoking". "Protein" might be a better metaphor.

You need protein for cells to work, and you want to grow and grow strong. But most protein has some potential cancer or heart disease correlation.

[smileysteve]

It's kind of the opposite though.

The fed ¡wanted! 2% inflation since 2008; even with covid fed policy, it took until spring 2022 to catch inflation up to the missed targets.