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by nomel 1372 days ago
I know nothing of the economy, but I was pretty convinced by this: https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/

For most significant spikes, there's a two year delay to a spike in inflation. 2009 and 2012 being a clear violation of that observation.

1 comments

I'm not sure how that graph convinced you of anything, it looks mostly like two random lines. Would be much nicer if there was some equation that correlated the two.

It does look like there are only 3 scenarios ('74, '80, '22) of a spike in m2 preceding a spike in inflation. But the m2 spike in '22 is so much larger (~2x) than '74 and '80 and the inflation spike is so much less (~0.7x) so the correlation of those variables based on those 3 samples seems poor.

But there's also '61, '67, '83, '01, '09, '11 where there was solid m2 growth or a spike and no inflation.