[namelessoracle]

People said much the same about Syria, and yet Assad is still there.

Ukraine would be foolish to trust the North America or Europe to support them forever, especially if even more major economic issues happen in either continent.

That seems to be Putins play, he is hoping the West's internal issues sufficiently flare up. This winter will probably determine that. The only real diplomatic path is to convince China to sever with Russia, and thats not gonna happen. Its well understood China is looking at this as a dry run for what kind of responses to expect if Taiwan gets attacked. And China is the clear winner of the Ukraine conflict right now.

[topspin]

Syria isn't a useful analogy for Ukraine. Syria isn't Europe. Syria is a tangled civil war whereas the Russian invasion of Ukraine is bald faced aggression. Syrian rebels do not and will never enjoy the unprecedented level of support Ukraine has.

[Someone]

> The only real diplomatic path is to convince China to sever with Russia, and thats not gonna happen.

It’s not going to fully happen, but Putin met Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan last week, and returned a bit disappointed.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/16/world/vladimir-...:

“President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Thursday that China had “questions and concerns” about Russia’s war in Ukraine, a notable, if cryptic, admission that Moscow lacks the full backing of its biggest, most powerful partner on the world stage”

⇒ I don’t think Russia will get much support from China.

[namelessoracle]

My broader point is that there is basically only 1 country who could put sufficient diplomatic pressure now to make Russia change course, and they've already clearly signaled they will not put that pressure on them to do so.

The current status quo where a luke warm ally nearby country whose territory and resources you might want to scoop up some day and your major rival are both burning resources, while you get to profit being the middle man between the 2 benefits China greatly. Fully supporting Russia doesn't.

[mythrwy]

This makes sense. If the West goes down, who will China sell all their manufactured goods to?

The sudden disruption in an economy with that many people might produce some serious destabilization.

China would probably prefer a slow fadeout of the West rather then a rapid implosion.

[theironhammer]

China needs Russia. As tensions rise between China and USA regarding hegemony China will need Russian commodities.

This is why Nixon sought to keep China and Russia separate. I don't know what the US State department's strategy is with Ukraine except to become energy supplier to Europe and grind Russia down. But in the process make China stronger?

[trasz]

Which commodities? The only useful thing Russia can offer China is gas, and that’s only because it’s cheap.

Well, another thing China might want from Russia is Manchuria, but it’s not the time I think.

[theironhammer]

And to buy Chinese goods. Especially when China and USA are no longer "friends".

[trasz]

Not really - Russian society is piss poor, their market is worthless compared to US or EU. That’s why China prioritizes western markets over Russia.