[s8s8discourse]

I presume he is thinking on the basis of Russia deploying another 200,000 troops and the effect that may have on undoing the gains of late (whether it will or not is another matter...).

Extending that thought process, if a partial mobilisation realises 200,000 troops to fight, then the next logical step after that fails is a full mobilisation with pundits suggesting up to 1,000,000 "soldiers".

There is some merit in thinking that the sheer size of Russia means they can just keep churning out men for a zerg rush at a rate exceeding that which Ukraine can deal with, at a cost:benefit ratio acceptable for Russia but crushing for Ukraine.

[trhway]

>Russia deploying another 200,000 troops

It is a very hard task even to just deploy, let alone with any gain. In February after months and months of training Russia has deployed to Ukraine about that number of the best forces it had (like Kantemirovskaya tank division). We've seen how it went.

The newly mobilized forces, even after 2-3 months of announced training, will be an order of magnitude worse with worse hardware (that if China doesn't help - there is a reason Putin made the announcement right after the Shanghai Organization summit, may be China promised something, though that would most probably accelerate US hardware to Ukraine). Deploying such forces to a battlefield, especially a one like in Ukraine - as they say it is much more harsh than even Chechen war - one risks loosing them as they come. For now Russia announced plans to use them initially in the 2nd/3rd lines of defense.

As an example - during recent Harkiv counter-offensive by Ukraine Russia was trying to stop Ukraine by throwing in significant new, recently recruited, additional forces without any staging, battle order forming, etc. - those forces were just destroyed as they came by Ukraine as a result.

Giving Ukraine more and better weapons will nullify any Russian number advantage and thus is the shortest path to end this war.

[s8s8discourse]

While my opinion is nothing more than armchair general - I agree. The overwhelming evidence supports this, even before the incredible counter offensive.

Even prior to the arrival of HIMARS, the decimation of Russian armour was astounding. And that was with weapons NATO infantry teams, the least specialist, most numerous bread and butter soldier force, are all trained on and supplied with.

As it stands; the Ukranians are better fed, equipped, supplied, intelligenced (!), and have the ability to rotate in and out of theatre to keep up momentum. As the offensive continues, their armaments increase in both quantity (captured russian equipment) and efficacy (NATO finally testing their weapons against that which they've theorised about fighting for the past 50 years). With every passing month, cadres of soldiers pass out from NATO training in the UK and throughout the EU.

Prediction - with that in mind - the Russians won't wait 2-3 months to deploy conscripts. They'll start loading trains this week.

It's going to be horrific. The metaphor of Russian gloves coming off will prove to be nothing but allowing them to shove greater quantities of meat into the grinder.

[megous]

> They'll start loading trains this week.

Already happening. https://t.co/Wklq8me5tq

Also keeping the mobilized in 2nd-3rd line defense makes little sense. The current units on the front must be tired, decimated and in need of either retiring back for some rest/recovery/replenisment.

Rusty soldiers will get sent right into first line with all their rusty weapons, and other stock they have to buy themselves if they wish to not bleed to death from simple wounds. https://t.co/JEAxSNOLer https://t.co/GBhRj0g3y3 https://t.co/JnlN5lq51G

Also all this mobilization is unexplicably happening at the start of fall/winter seasons. When/if Russians finally manage to ship most of the people to Ukraine, it will already be winter, and they'll be freezing to death in areas with no working infrastructure, just like during late winter/early autmn earlier this year.

I really don't get it. The leadership must be grasping at straws with very little regard for human life.