[caf]

This is insightful, but I think you've pointed out the solution (for ARM) at the same time as the problem. Is there any reason that Microsoft couldn't repeat their earlier work and define an ARMPC-2013 standard? It seems like this will be necessary if they want Windows8-on-ARM to be a useable proposition.

[ChuckMcM]

The trick is get a system standard in place, that has the tendency to commoditize the chips and Intel was in a position to control the value chain (price of the CPU is still a disproportinate cost of the overall system). So someone has to create the standard on faith that the increased volume will make up for the price pressure that comes with commoditization.

Now ARM could come up with a spec for the 'ARM System Standard' and license/certify that. That has some possibility if someone like Google made sure that the Android kernel always ran on the 'reference design' standard. But that level of strategic thinking has been very hard to co-ordinate to date.

[caf]

It seems to me that Microsoft is in a perfect position to promulgate such a standard - they don't care if the hardware is commoditized (in fact they would welcome it). It also appears that "will run Windows 8" should be a sufficient carrot to convince manufacturers to build to the spec.

As you say, Google is in a similar position, so perhaps a Microsoft/Google jointly supported standard makes a certain amount of sense, as odd as that sounds...