[makeitdouble]

You are of course right, and that’s the basis of SCRUM like thinking.

The point I’d still raise is that very few organization are OK with actually going the full length to reduce the error margin to what they want to tolerate (they still end up eating the costs associated with the actual execution time, of course)

For instance: you integrate a new API from a new vendor, and a request is made on a time estimate. It’s probably a very bland task with no crazy thinks to do, except you have no idea what surprises you might get actually running the API. What if the vendor din’t account for one of your use case for instance ? (let’s say they round money amounts to the nearest cent while your business requires round ups everywhere instead)

The safeguard against that risk is to either: fully run the API beforehand and cover all your use cases, or document every single requirement and run them through your vendor. If you’re not a bank nor the NASA, you probably won’t be allowed to do that before giving an estimate that will set a deadline.

It’s to me one of the reason why outside I put “creative” in quotes, as the problems we’re trying to solve don’t need to be complex, unexpected is sufficient. And ‘deadlines’ are more probably more ‘guidelines’ as most orgs don’t really care to secure them.