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As a counterpoint, if we look at the world of sports. I follow hockey quite closely. In hockey the term generational talent gets thrown around and assigned to kids, sometimes as young as 13-14. There is even an official recognition in the Canadian Major Junior system at 15 with "Exceptional Player Status" where a 15 year old is given eligibility to play in the league (normally 16+). Some of these prodigies do level out, like you say. Often on account of their size being caught up to. But some truly remain remarkable into adulthood and actually hit that Generational talent level (Connor McDavid for instance). There's only been a handful of kids granted this status in the past 20 years (~7). The oldest 3, two turned into superstars (Tavares/Ekblad) and McDavid is generational, simply the best player in the world, full stop. The next is a bust, Sean Day, who at 15 was 6'2 when drafted into the juniors. That would be your everyone catches up example. The others are still too young to say, one is 22 and just beginning (but not looking like a superstar), one was just drafted this summer and likely will play his first game for Seattle this season. Another is the projected 1st overall pick next summer. But there are definitely the handful of prodigies that pan out at least in the sports world and instead of being called a prodigy - they earn themselves superstardom or get talked about as GOATs (greatest of all time, for the unfamiliar). If we also look at who are in the generational talent conversation (go in reverse), in the past 20 years all the players who might be mentioned (Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid) were definitely prodigies as well. So much so that the next generation of prodigies is compared to them, McDavid being called the next coming of Crosby. We may see the next coming of Ovechkin in a young russian player named Matvei Michkov who has been a prodigy in the russian league. Sadly, we may never find out given the political situation and Russia seems more intent on keeping home grown talent in Russia more and more. Maybe the issue isn't prodigies disappear, it's that in many fields we don't compete like children often do and get recognition? None of my friends have a GPA at work or a spelling bee to win. If all careers were like sports, maybe we would continue to recognize prodigies into adulthood? |