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by Deestan 5310 days ago
You're assuming a different selection model, in which a father of two boys is twice as likely to volunteer information if he has two boys: "Pick a child at random, then if it's a boy - say: I have a boy [blablabla] what is the other?"

However, you're doing this on an already selected sample by discounting all the girl-girl pairs. The selection rule in your logic then becomes a two-step "If you have at least one boy, then pick a child at random, then if it's a boy, say: [blablabla]"

Given that, your analysis is correct.

But, seeing as it is a wildly different selection model than what everyone else seem to work with, you should be explicit about it.