[snoble]

Thanks wtvanhest

I think we basically agree; you may just be taking issue with my very explicit representation of the formula. All that's really happening here is just a weighted average of daily churn rates. I really think you need to average over a period of time to deal with normal volatility.

While the number '30' is in the formulation is not intended to mean that this metric can only be measured for a month. Rather it's just there to normalize the metric to always be comparable to the monthly rate. It would be very reasonable to take this metric for a month and for every week in the month and see if any of the weeks are substantially higher or lower.

I would be cautious with using this, or anything based on daily churn, to be used in a formula for predictions. If you want to predict what customers will do over x days it is far better to measure what customers have done over x days. What you lose in currency you more than make up for in having taken a direct measurement. Though I would happily use this metric to play in a model with computed weights.

Thanks again, Steven