[scotty79]

> it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it

Every 4 years it looks like that. And yet the next greed fueled ascension comes around like a clock. Each next one smaller than the last one.

Next one will come around 2025 but this time it's going to be just few hundred percent.

[smcl]

Eh there might be another bump. But as long as it's a space for scammers, pump-and-dump schemes, shitcoins and bullshitters it's just not for me. A pretty ridiculous amount of money has been sunk into making cryptocurrencies look like a big thing, instead of actually solving the problems that prevented people from actually using them. That makes me think that deep down the cryptocurrency people aren't that serious about their projects becoming actual currencies, and that they simply see them as a way to get rich quick by selling something they know to be ultimately worthless. Quite a few people have gotten rich (hello, Do Kwon!) so there's a chance it could work for those founders. But as a potential end-user, nahh no thanks I've seen enough

[anonymouswacker]

The "space" for a cryptocurrency is a Venn Diagram solely occupied by one circle: Bitcoin. We're seeing a culling of these shitcoin also-rans, which took the money from the late-coming naive while enriching the early wave of speculators, like any other common pyramid scheme.

[smcl]

Amazing. When the crypto world get bored of minting apes and such maybe they'll try to actually bother to try making bitcoin into something that can be used day-by-day. I don't think they will though. I think it'll remain only a speculative asset whose price jumps erratically to-and-fro until people get bored and move on to the next shiny thing.

[scotty79]

So you are opting out of Bitcoin because other cryptocurrencies exist?

[ericmcer]

My Coworker said this exact thing to me in 2019, that now was the time to buy because not many were talking about crypto and many had written it off, but that it worked in 4 year spikes. Wish I had listened to him then haha.

[scotty79]

Best times to buy bitcoin was in 2011, 2015, 2019, 2022 ... roughly every 4 years. Exactly at the time HN thinks bitcoin is dead and burried.

And best times to sell (if you needed to sell) was in 2013, 2017, 2021 ... so I think the next time will be around 2025.

Every cycle swings less (in term of percentage change) so the next one will be just few hundred percent (troth to peak) and following ones even smaller till bitcoin will become yet another random walk asset like stocks.