[crazygringo]

I would say not likely. As industries mature, incumbents acquire enough of an advantage that they don't get outcompeted, you just want until the market for their product disappears.

It's like asking if Coca-Cola, Nabisco, or Unilever are going to get "taken down a notch". No, not really. Also "take down a notch" is some pretty judgmental phrasing, as if it implies they're bigger than they deserve to be, as if they're doing something wrong.

Google owns search, Amazon owns retailing, Microsoft owns enterprise, and Apple owns hardware. Every market has a runner-up as well in terms of profitability (arguably Bing, Wal-Mart, Google Cloud, Dell respectively), but that's in the same way Pepsi is the eternal runner-up to Coca-Cola.

These markets are pretty mature now, in ways that they weren't in the days of Yahoo and AOL. In contrast, IBM was dominant for decades and only declined as eventually consumer PC's disrupted mainframes. So really you'd have to ask, what could ever fundamentally disrupt/replace search, online shopping, office software suites, or phones/laptops? It's pretty hard to imagine until something like generalized artificial intelligence comes along.

[tmpz22]

> Google owns search,

And Youtube and Chrome and Android and Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning via their massive data hoard

> Amazon owns retailing

And Cloud and Whole Foods and more

> Microsoft owns enterprise

And Github and VSCode and EA, Bethesda/Zenimax/Xbox game studios (Obsidian etc), and Blizzard/Activision

> Apple owns hardware

And is making a huge push into Ads, and Music, they also control their hardware at an extreme level via iOS, the App Store, etc.

---

These are mega-corporations that are expanding to the overall detriment of society.

[Gaessaki]

Didn't mean to imply that they were necessarily doing anything wrong or right (and I tried to clarify that with the last sentence of my post).

In my book, "taking down a notch" means to humble someone. Companies like Apple and Google can make uniliteral decisions that move markets (for better or for worse), in a way that other companies can't. The crux of the question is whether they'll be able to hold onto this liberty.

On the same vein, I think it's totally fair to ask whether a non-tech company like Nestlé could be taken down a notch.

All that being said, I buy your point. As long as their core offerings remain undisrupted/maintained, it's hard to envision things being different.

[mejutoco]

> It's like asking if Coca-Cola, Nabisco, or Unilever are going to get "taken down a notch". No, not really.

Coca-cola, and some of Unilever products (like Kraft cheese or Heinz ketchup) don't look great in some markets where health is a major selling point of food products and a lot of smaller competitors are coming up.

IMHO they are past their peak but, of course, they will survive for a long time.