[blackbear_]

Do you have specific reasons not to believe the model and/or data in that article, beyond "all models are wrong by definition"?

[throwaway4aday]

A model is a prediction, nothing more. It can be a correct prediction but only after being verified by comparison with reality.

[mrguyorama]

Show where this model disagrees with reality.

[logic_beats_pro]

The problem is there is no way to accurately tell if the vaccine saved a single life, let alone 20 million