[time_to_smile]

I don't think AI generated art is even a threat to stock photography, but rather clip art... which isn't too disruptive in my view.

I can immediately recognize (as I did for this post) when art is AI generated right now. I've spent a lot of time playing with SD and while it's been a blast as a toy, the vast majority of the outputs are 'meh' and even the best still have those weird artifacts that stick out like a sore thumb.

Just like the clip art ascetic quickly becomes recognizable and somewhat nauseating, so too is AI generated art already starting to feel that way.

As far as aiding experts I don't imagine synthetic art will be nearly as game changing as the Adobe suite. I do a fair bit of writing and find GPT-3 to be completely unnecessary for "quickly generating a bunch of concepts". I assume that visual arts, like writers, already have a bunch of ideas in their head for what to do. That's never the bottle neck. Writers block happens but it's not because you can't think of a general concept, it's because implementing that specific concept into text is what's hard.

[andreilys]

I’m curious why do you think that AI generation will plateau at its current quality level?

[time_to_smile]

Same reason that self driving cars have plateaued. The things that are really important for that last mile are also really hard and we're not really sure how to get there.

The output between all the major AI image synthesis tools, while impressive, is quite clearly very high dimensional interpolation, and it shares the same limitations in that space as it does the 2d space. We've already thrown insane amounts of data and compute resources at the problem and it's made the things that were done well in the past even better but doesn't move us towards solving the hard parts.

[lacker]

Same reason that self driving cars have plateaued.

But they haven't plateaued. I can go take a trip in a self-driving Cruise in San Francisco right now. I couldn't do that last year.

There's certainly a lot of room for them to improve, but the self-driving car industry is making progress.

[trention]

It's making slow progress, much slower than expected 10 years ago, when in 2012 I was personally "promised" by a person with a start up in the field that I will be able to buy a L5 car in 5 years. That person is the equivalent of those promising me I will be able to generate a whole movie by a prompt by the end of this decade.

Not happening.

[andreilys]

Self driving cars and generating AI are two completely different problem sets.

Particularly as one deals with the world of atoms, where the cost of a mistake is much higher.

There are already models that work to “aesthetically” rate images, and the results are quite promising.

To think we won’t see leaps in quality over the coming months/years is narrow sighted.

[time_to_smile]

Coinbase stock keeps going up despite it being widely acknowledged that crypto is fundamentally a scam, so anything is possible.

Though it's more likely in a the coming months/years people's ability ignore reality will just become stronger and we'll all believe that a person waving their 4 wiggly fingers and staring at you with strange fish eyes is hyper realism at it's finest.

We've entered the "emperor's new clothes" reality at this point, so nothing would surprise me.