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by criley2 1383 days ago
>Do Ukraine and the West have a course of action in case of a total energy blackout in Ukraine right before the winter [1]?

While Russia's attacks on Ukraine's power and heating infrastructure are vile and evil and designed to hurt civilians, I do believe that the West has many plans to help the people of Ukraine who are displaced and at-risk due to Russia's warcrimes.

This also includes the reality that the Russian's are attempting to destroy nuclear facilities to create a massive regional fallout event, another breathtakingly evil war crime.

> It seems to me that the local success in Kharkiv is not possible to expand onto other regions without significant army loss, because the adversary is energy-independent and is able to continue indefinitely as long as their army doesn't lose its military or as long as their losses a xN fewer than Ukraine's.

This doesn't make any sense. Russia is not "energy-independent", quite contrary, they require supply lines for fuel to keep the vehicles moving just like everyone else. The Russian supply lines have been notoriously bad this war, which is arguably the #1 reason for the poor Russian performance. (Although American intelligence tracks all Russian supply movement in Ukraine, and American HIMARS can hit any target in Ukraine, so the Ukrainians have viciously destroyed Russian supply infrastructure from long range, forcing Russians to keep supplies far from the front).

Ukraine has just dealt a massive blow to the Russian resupply lines by taking major train hubs that the Russians, until 3 days ago, were using to resupply forces across Ukraine.

> How much military did Ukraine lose to achieve success in Kharkiv region?

Considered that there was very little reports of Russian resistance (they were in full withdrawal and not mounting any kind of stand), reports from both Ukraine and Russia show that losses over the past 3 days have been minimal for both sides.

1 comments

> While Russia's attacks on Ukraine's power and heating infrastructure are vile and evil and designed to hurt civilians, I do believe that the West has many plans to help the people of Ukraine who are displaced and at-risk due to Russia's warcrimes.

What help would it be in case of a blackout? Energy prices in Europe are soaring at the moment and I don't see a clear strategy how these infrastructure destructions could be mitigated and replaced by european nations on a timely manner, that is crucial for civilians' safety in major urban areas. People in rural areas could probably fallback to sustaining their households by burning logs and coal, but the city dwellers?

Food and medical supplies, fuel for non-electric heating, etc. We'll help the Ukrainians survive. The people of Europe are strong and will endure.

Yes, Russia will be able to enact a lot of pain of Europe through natural gas, but the reality is that Europe is fully capable of transitioning away from Russia, while Russia has absolutely zero plan for their economy after losing their biggest export and biggest customer.

Honestly, the oligarchs, the Russian generals, the Russian people, when they realize that their main source of money is being replaced permanently it's not hard to imagine regime change leading to the end of the invasion and re-opening of supplies. Putin might not care, but his people do. This is how out of control dictators fail... they cut off their nose to spite their face.