[tostonescon]

This is a very odd interpretation of the data that you yourself linked, unless I misread your intention or the data you linked

2018 flu season spent about a month at 5000 excess on this chart. We've spent the last two and half years with a typical floor of 5000 excess, except for April of 2021 and 2022. So over the past two and half years, we've had about two months of time that there are fewer excess deaths than the bad 2018 flu season. I agree we are re-approaching nominal as this surge cools down, but the 2021 data shows that even post vaccine and infection granted immunity surges are liable to happen quickly

[tomohawk]

The graph clearly shows the peak in 2018 at 67,661 on Jan 12. That is a higher level than mid May through to Nov in 2020, as but one example.

I'm not sure where the 5000 number you cite comes from. The chart I attempted to show was for the US.