[astrange]

You can’t perfectly calculate the future of any situation ahead of time if you’re part of it, because it becomes chaotic.

This is part of the “computers are going to become AGI and enslave us” scam, they show people proofs AIXI is an optimal planner and don’t mention that it doesn’t include itself in the plans in order to make them computable.

If it was possible you could beat the stock market.

[tomcatfish]

You're aware that the AI folks aren't trying to build AIXI, right? I find it hard to believe you'd thrash a theoretical infinite-compute chess model as silly this hard; it's a useful model as a boundary case.

[thfuran]

>If it was possible you could beat the stock market

You say that like it's some natural law that that can't be done. But that's not the case.

[astrange]

There's some natural laws in the area. You can't win infinite money forever by one piece of good information, it's going to get priced in or the other traders are going to get wiped out.

Rational expectation/efficient market hypothesis works better than people think: https://someunpleasant.substack.com/p/economists-do-they-kno...