US new car sales are still more than 2,000,000 fewer per year than pre-pandemic (about a 12% drop) [1], mostly because of restricted supply. A less than .5 percentage point change in default rates is not nearly enough to close this gap.
Cast a wide net using the dealerships' Internet Sales desk ONLY and expect your search to take longer than pre-COVID times. You might be able to find the car you want at a reasonable price... a few hundred miles away. And don't be afraid to walk if the dealership tries any shenanigans when you show up. If they know you drove X hours to get there, they may try to leverage that information.
I bought a new car recently that there was very little haggle room on but at least no markup (other than the doc fee, etc.) Also took 6 weeks. But I did get a $15K trade-in on a 75K mile, 11 yo car with visible body damage. I was shocked. That must suggest something about used car prices.
Is there a reasonable chance that the vehicle you want will be ready by then? In your shoes I'd try to place the order. Otherwise I'd get something a few years old (2018+). In 24 months it'll be ridiculously messy anyways, and I think a 20k mile difference is negligible these days.
> I'm saying that children are very messy, so no need to worry about a car looking new.
Oh, that makes more sense. I thought that, in "In 24 months it will be ridiculously messy", 'it' referred to the state of the car-buying market, rather than to a car itself.
If you can afford to risk $250 (non-refundable order fee), then put in an order for a Model Y. At least to have the option. Then go test drive one. Don’t brush this idea off without doing an actual test drive. Not a ride. A drive. Orders put in now have delivery as soon as December.
[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/gen-z-millennials-...