[skohan]

That's a fair point, 10 years might be a bit hyperbolic.

On the other hand, Smartphones were better positioned to drive adoption that eSIMs are. Smartphones create immediate utility for the user over feature phones. eSIM is arguably better than a physical sim, but at the end of the day you are only saving maybe a tiny inconvenience every time you have to swap out the sim. So there's not going to be a large push to switch from the user side.

A good comparison might be USB-C. People were writing in 2015 that the writing was on the wall for USB-A[1], and even though USB-C is basically better in every way, it's still not fully adopted 7 years later. It's not even the standard for desktop peripherals.

Also Smartphones are a highly competitive market with multiple vendors vying for users. Telecoms are mostly monopolies, and have little incentive to improve in most cases.

The only real driver I see for this is if eSIM-only devices get widespread popularity. I don't see it happening any time soon with low-end Android phones. Maybe wearables, but I feel like the idea of people in the developing world getting a second data plan for a wearable is a long way off.

But I could be wrong.

[1]: https://www.theverge.com/2015/6/2/8704551/usb-type-c-is-the-...