[winReInstall]

The basic assumption of history being made by decision makers is wrong. Such history is made - under good circumstances, yes. If a surplus exists and no internal oppossition rears its head, due to economic stress.

As soon as the economic limits of a system are reached though, leaders are just as the population under the influence of the "physics of the situation". Which is shaped by human instincts, retardations reacting to a percieved "world turned hostile". Meaning, as soon as things go bad, the decision space is very harshly restricted and the consequences are often very much out of control for those in power deciding.

If humanity were a vessel, as soon as storm draws closer, the steering wheel breaks.

[bombcar]

This is broadly correct - the truly great leaders of history are rarely studied, because they noticed the current situation well in advance and adjusted things to avoid it.

Same how the best ship captains are the ones who never entered the storm, not the ones that somehow survived.