[hnfong]

> it's hard to construct a thesis that has US equity returns at or below 0 over a long period fo time

> there is little reason to believe that economic activity in the US collapse in the immediate future

> not to the point where mean reversion would suggest a multi-decade depression in equity returns

I don't see how you're ruling out a scenario where the US economy can't keep up with expected growth and stagnates for a couple decades. You rightly claim that it's unlikely in the "immediate future", but 20 years from now? A pandemic already happened, why would it be "extremely hard to imagine" another more serious one happening soon?

To repeat the GP's comment: As a non-American I can't believe how much faith people put in the stock market here. I think they're going to be a rude shock the next few decades.