[orwin]

What? It's Thales who produce Russia's R77M1 guidance systems and some of its avionics, and they are worst than MICAs (let's not even talk about Meteors). Russian pilots get on average less than 80 hours/year of real flights, standard in France in 140, including regular wargames against US raptors and superhornets at both Fox3 and Fox2 distance (some old videos are available on the internet of rafale f2 vs F22 raptor, it is fun to watch)(also, i write engagement distance in full letter because french standard for their rafale is confusing).

And not talking about the difference in Fox3 missiles (because Russia cannot compete), even Fox2 it's not that close, with a time to lock for MICA IM at least twice as short as Russia equivalent on the same plane (and MICAs avionics are better, so harder to evade).

But enough talk about missiles and air to air engagement. What about electronic warfare capabilities? Oh yeah, dependant on Thales designs. Also, do you expect a lot from country whose plane passive IFF isn't working? Yeah, that happened on a Su34 (so, not that old of a plane).

The S400 would prevent too much entries in Russian airspace (although we learned last year than EM disruption was enough to counter it, you still have to find it. I think S400 are better than what a lot of people now expect from Russian modern weaponry). I doubt however they would have anything other than Su57 left after two days of war against EU. And since they already lost two (or is it three?) in six months in ukraine, they only have thirteen left (including prototypes).

Also i'm not convinced of Russian nightime optics, i know they didn't hire Thales for those, but i think they should have considering it took two weeks to spot nighttime Mariupol approvisionment raids.

I'm pretty sure aerial warfare is not

[throwrqX]

Why would it matter who produces them? They would be bought where it's cheapest to buy them, that doesn't necessary mean they lack the ability to produce them domestically if needed. Russia's military expenditure adjusted for purchasing power is far more than any individual country in the EU indeed it's more than all the great powers of the EU combined. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/roiw.12536

Russia's air force pilots would be getting more combat experience compared to French pilots whose only would are less active in doing strikes in Africa and the Middle East. This applies to their armed forces in general in comparison to EU armies. I would agree their electronic warfare has been lackluster so far in Ukraine and that sanctions will continue to cause problems but in the long term I am not so sure their effect would be so great if Russia was planning years ahead. Also I would mention there's lots of Russian sympathizers in the EU and the increased amount of espionage that would occur beforehand, it would likely be a lot more brazen than it currently is. I can't find the source right now but recently I read some military commentators talking about how Russia has a much higher industrial capacity than the US currently has too. I would assume this applies to the EU. Even if they lack lots of high tech stuff they can still mass produce more lower tech fighters and so on.

I would be very cautious underestimating Russia's military ability just because of the fuck up in Ukraine. At the start people were calling it the end of the tank in the modern military too but now more wiser heads are prevailing.