[PathOfEclipse]

To my knowledge, to this day, there are still exactly zero RCTs showing that masks were ever effective against COVID, and at least two major RCTs whose results indicate they are not very effective (there was no statistically significant benefit to masking). If, after two years of a world-wide pandemic, the best evidence we can put forth are low-quality observational studies which explicitly state they cannot show causation, then maybe it's time to stop blindly repeating the mantra that masks are effective.

https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2729

[gilbetron]

Are you willfully trying to propagate this idea? It seems like you must be, because there is a deluge of studies showing the effectiveness of masks - and the nuance and complexity of that statement. Throwing on a thin cloth mask that doesn't seal well doesn't do much of anything. Putting on an N95, well-fitted mask definitely helps tremendously. That you think there are "exactly zero" studies indicates you aren't even looking. Please look and stop trying to sit in your echo chamber.

[nostrebored]

Right, and fitted N95s are not safe for prolonged wear.

There are exactly zero RCTs that suggest that masks are effective, the parent comment is correct. The single RCT that claims effectiveness was on hamsters.

Completely missing from pro-mask discourse is potential impact of large-scale masking on children. Developmental delays are starting to pop up, and previous public health advocates for masking are starting to turn course.

[gilbetron]

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02457-y

Your first two statements are just wrong, shockingly so after over 2 years where you could have educated yourself and decided not to.

Your last statement is definitely something we need to look into, but I think the development delays are probably minimal (speaking as a parent of a kid that wore masks at a critical age), but I think the social isolation was far more significant.

[PathOfEclipse]

"The study linked surgical masks with an 11% drop in risk, compared with a 5% drop for cloth."

The cloth results were statistically insignificant, meaning indistinguishable from noise. The surgical mask results barely passed the statistical significance test, but lose that significance as soon as the data are stratified by age.

On top of that, there have been numerous problems with the study that call into questions even the incredibly meager positive results it managed to show: https://www.justfactsdaily.com/famed-bangladesh-mask-study-e...

You are the one who needs to educate yourself.

[PathOfEclipse]

Your response should be a comedic parody, yet, sadly, you are actually being serious. It's a depressing reflection on the state of the world.

I said there are zero RCTs, a type of study that can establish causation, and you respond, "there are lots of mask studies! You just aren't looking!" Your response literally contradicts nothing that I said. I even linked a BMJ-published opinion lamenting the fact that there are a lot of mask studies, but they are mostly low-quality. I'm going to guess you didn't bother reading it.

Not to mention that you tell me there is a deluge of studies showing the effectiveness of masks, but you can't even be bothered to cite one yourself. Lastly, you accuse me of sitting in an echo chamber, an accusation that is beyond baseless. What else would you be willing to accuse me of without a shred of evidence?

Your response is just another example that people don't follow the scientific method; they are driven by ideology and tribalism.

[gilbetron]

First google hit, not difficult: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02457-y

Again, you have an agenda that is at odds with reality, please stop, it is literally hurting people.

[PathOfEclipse]

I guess it's possible you don't actually know the difference, but what you linked isn't a research paper or study; it's a news article! And it's factually incorrect. It cites the Bangladesh RCT, which I am well aware of already. The trial results showed little to no statistically significant benefit to masking: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360320982_The_Bangl...

"A very large trial, whose results were published in Science, carried out in Bangladesh between 2020 and 2021 has been widely acclaimed as providing the most convincing evidence yet that masks work in reducing Covid-19 transmission and infections. However, the media grossly exaggerated the authors' own conclusions, and sceptical researchers have identified weaknesses in various aspects of the trial and statistical analysis which cast doubts on the significance of the results."

Also: https://www.justfactsdaily.com/famed-bangladesh-mask-study-e...

"However, their pre-analysis plan to measure results for “each decade” of age ranges shows no statistically significant effects among people aged 18–29, 30–39, 40–49, and 70+. Furthermore, they excluded this breakdown from their paper and relegated it to a supplement."

Also: https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/bangladesh-study-proves-m...

Also: https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/09/02/clinical-trial-banglade...

Also: https://anthonycolpo.com/the-bangladesh-mask-study-is-back-a...

"One especially illuminating finding, which would be funny were it not a reflection of just how far science has fallen, is that purple cloth masks showed no advantage over going maskless, but red cloth masks did. Red cloth masks, in fact, showed higher 'efficacy' than surgical masks."

One of us two is at odds with reality. That may be true. But here's a hint. It's not me. When you're done with your baseless and tribalistic accusations of my "agenda", maybe you can humble yourself enough to learn something today.

[sjsdaiuasgdia]

You do you, but I've enjoyed not even getting the slightest cold for the last couple years that I might just keep masking in a lot of public spaces for the foreseeable future. It's anecdata for sure, but my experience seems to suggest that masks can help protect against airborne transmissible viral infections.

For more anecdata, pretty much everyone in my extended contacts that has chosen to relax their masking posture has gotten covid at some point since. Those that continue stricter protocols get sick less, bet it colds covid or flu.

I haven't heard about any surgeons giving up wearing masks in the operating room. Wonder why...

[californical]

I do wonder if there are long-term affects from sheltering our immune systems for extended periods.

Now, I’m still in favor of wearing masks in some particularly high-risk places. And absolutely supported masks in the earlier days (until vaccines were readily available & common).

But by not getting exposure to the regular tiny amounts of bacteria and viruses that float around from other people (our body deals with quickly and we never feel sick), do we know anything about the long term affects of that on the immune system? Genuinely curious because I couldn’t find anything.

We know it causes an increase in blood-CO2 concentration: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8072811/

And possibly a decrease in white blood cell count: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34585544/

But I don’t think we know yet if there are long-term immune system complications

[Izkata]

> I haven't heard about any surgeons giving up wearing masks in the operating room. Wonder why...

Those masks are as much about blocking blood spurts from the patient as they are about blocking spit from the doctor. They're not meant for blocking airborne viruses either way.

[aljungberg]

The fact that we were strongly told no and then yes with equal conviction is sufficient to demonstrate the point, regardless of whether masks work. Whether intentionally or not, media and governments can mislead in an in effect coordinated fashion.

(Note there is a straw-man counterargument where one might say “so they changed their mind as evidence evolved, that’s allowed”. But the information was presented as established and factual in both cases. We have always been at war with Eastasia.)

[ubertaco]

>(Note there is a straw-man counterargument where one might say “so they changed their mind as evidence evolved, that’s allowed”. But the information was presented as established and factual in both cases. We have always been at war with Eastasia.)

My friend, if you expect immediate inerrancy from everyone dealing with global-scale novel viruses, then I think you'll find that you'll _always_ be disappointed (or, more likely given your 1984 reference, you'll _always_ be the "victim" of another imagined conspiracy).

I do hope your friends, family, and coworkers afford you more space to learn, grow, and change (and that you practice doing so!) than you afford to others.

[lmm]

> My friend, if you expect immediate inerrancy from everyone dealing with global-scale novel viruses

The point is that if they are not certain then they should make it clear they are not certain. We were told very confidently that masks didn't work, that using them was nothing more than superstition. We are now told equally confidently that they do work. The establishment, taken as a whole, is extremely, dangerously overconfident.

[kbelder]

I don't think they were confident, but they thought they needed to pretend to be confident. Consider it the side effect of presumably competent scientists spending too much time with politicians and PR departments.

And that's why they ended up seeming like liars, and can't be trusted.

[hackerfromthefu]

Well it's not just seeming - they actually were liars, about the degree of confidence. As you said, too much time with politicians and PR professional liars!

[aljungberg]

It’s fine to make mistakes, especially in a fluid, developing situation. And it is precisely therefore we shouldn’t dress up our hypothesises as fact.

The actors here presented mask dictates as gospel. They were either wrong when anti-mask or wrong when pro-mask, but somehow conveyed absolute confidence in both cases. This is very harmful for the public discourse and for the reputation of the authorities during a time when reputation was paramount.

It’s okay not to know everything, just be honest about it.

[fireflash38]

The experts did NOT state it as fact. Pretty much ever. They couched it in terms as best they knew. If you want to argue that people consuming that and spreading that info put it in bad terms, you can, but I think that's a poor argument in general.

[aljungberg]

I disagree that people were spreading it in bad terms, if by that you mean the general public. Just look at what the officials actually said. Here’s March 2020:

> “You can increase your risk of getting it by wearing a mask if you are not a health care provider,” Surgeon General Jerome Adams said.

England’s chief medical officer, same month:

> Prof Whitty said: “In terms of wearing a mask, our advice is clear: that wearing a mask if you don’t have an infection reduces the risk almost not at all. So we do not advise that.”

Dr Fauci:

> “Right now, in the United States, people should not be walking around with masks,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, an immunologist and a public face of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, on CBS’ “60 Minutes” earlier this month. He, like the others, suggested that masks could put users at risk by causing them to touch their face more often.

The WHO advised against it (to your point they did couch their language so much that it wasn’t even clear what they were really advising [1]).

And these are just the ones I could find quickly right now. From memory, the message was even stronger than this and even proliferated in this very forum. There was a time when you kind of had to duck and speak quietly if you wanted to bring up the idea that maybe this anti-mask thing wasn’t settled fact.

1: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/11/whos-confusing-guidance...

[claytongulick]

> My friend, if you expect immediate inerrancy from everyone dealing with global-scale novel viruses, then I think you'll find that you'll _always_ be disappointed (or, more likely given your 1984 reference, you'll _always_ be the "victim" of another imagined conspiracy).

When public policy is based on it, people are threatened with jail, forceably removed from outdoor open-air sporting events and denied basic services, yeah - you sure as hell better not be wrong about it.

When people in the street yell at you and call you a murderer for not wearing a mask outside in the sunshine (this happened to me) - yeah, you don't get to go back later and say "oops, my bad".

When the government exercises extraordinary emergency powers by executive fiat without legislative support to impose masking rules - they had better have damned good science to back it up.

In this case, the science simply didn't exist.

It's a strawman argument to claim "numerous studies show effectiveness of masking" as I've seen several people argue in this discussion.

The only relevant studies are those that evaluate the effectiveness of universal masking, since that's what the public policy dictated.

Universal masking policy was a knee-jerk response to some early studies and models that over estimated the risk of asymptomatic transmission. However, regardless of the new science that demonstrated that asymptomatic transmission was incredibly rare, the authorities refused to change the guidance.

Where was the science that justified the arbitrary and utterly performative rules put in place for restaurants? (wear a mask to walk three meters from the front door to the table, but it's ok to take it off when you're at the table)

Or the painfully performative masking of news people, in a studio by themselves, wearing a mask. Or wearing a mask alone in a car. Or on a walk outside. Or on a video conference for work.

Masks quickly stopped being about science very early on and quickly became nothing more than a flag for showing political alliance with the utter nonscientific nonsense of cloth masks and the overnight development of "fashion masks".

Forcing this on children was especially painful to watch. Children, who will never follow proper masking protocols and who are happy to trade their batman mask for their friend's spiderman mask...

> do hope your friends, family, and coworkers afford you more space to learn, grow, and change (and that you practice doing so!) than you afford to others.

I do hope that this entire episode and the bumbling, unscientific, incoherent and political face-saving response from the government makes you take a second look at blanket, authoritarian policy in the future.

Universal masking was the public health equivalent of the TSA. Illusory safety at best, with very little demonstrable effectiveness to justify the intrusion and restrictions put in place.

[mejutoco]

I think it is difficult to do a RCT of Covid (many different variants, vaccines, variability in symptoms), but it is a very fair point. Thank you.

There are RCT for influenza and other diseases Sars (1):

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22280120/

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014564118

While maybe we do not have the gold standard study, I think it was the right decision, given how little inconvenience masks have, for the much bigger benefit of reducing Covid risks.