I realize my argument made it seem like I was using the sales data to justify my claim, but that wasn't really what I was going for - my mistake. I am aware of the demand issues, but the question is how far does that scale?
The current market for EVs seems to be middle to upper class city-dwellers who own their own homes and commute less than an hour each day. That is certainly a sizable market that will scale to a point, but what about after that point? What about rural folks who have no need for an EV and are perfectly content to drive ICE vehicles the rest of their lives? What about people who refuse to buy EVs for ideological reasons? What about car enthusiasts who love the roar of a V8? What about people who can't afford to spend 35k+ USD on a new (and base) model EV? What about people who need heavy duty trucks? What about people who have large families and need something with generous seating capacity and the ability to tow the occasional boat or RV for family trips?
Point being, there are large parts of the market that are either underserved because there isn't an EV that matches their needs, or they have no desire to be served at all.
For some reason your making the assumption EVs and related infrastructure are not improving all the time. ICE cars are not improving very much, where EVs are getting cheaper each year. Eventually there will be cheaper options, and a 2nd hand market. Eventually there will be heavy duty trucks. Eventually there will be options with generous seating capacity.
Yes there are some people that love the roar of a v7, some people think the choice is political. But the vast majority don't give a shit. It will come down to function and economics. Eventually EVs will beat out ICEs in more an more usecases per $ spent, and then many of the people holding out for ideological reasons will switch because they're friends and family are all driving them.
There will eventually be a tipping point where gas stations start shutting down because of EV becoming a significant part of the market, which I think will start a feedback loop. Gas stations that survive on slim margins will be uneconomical with 20% EV adoption, will either shut down or raise prices. This will make it worse to own an ICE for more people, that will switch to EVs. Then more stations are out under pressure, rinse and repeat.
The current market for EVs seems to be middle to upper class city-dwellers who own their own homes and commute less than an hour each day. That is certainly a sizable market that will scale to a point, but what about after that point? What about rural folks who have no need for an EV and are perfectly content to drive ICE vehicles the rest of their lives? What about people who refuse to buy EVs for ideological reasons? What about car enthusiasts who love the roar of a V8? What about people who can't afford to spend 35k+ USD on a new (and base) model EV? What about people who need heavy duty trucks? What about people who have large families and need something with generous seating capacity and the ability to tow the occasional boat or RV for family trips?
Point being, there are large parts of the market that are either underserved because there isn't an EV that matches their needs, or they have no desire to be served at all.