[jongjong]

>> I conclude that marketing hype and the first mover advantage form the vast bulk of valuation in a novel tech that people don't understand.

Well said. Having worked in the blockchain space as a developer and founder since 2017, I've also come to the same conclusion. The formula for success is hype + first mover advantage - Aside from that; it's all about social climbing and politics around those projects.

It's surprising how long the first-mover advantage advantage lasts and it's weird to see that even developers who should know better are getting pulled into learning poorly designed (or outdated) technologies. They're conflating the financial achievements of projects with their technological achievements.

I guess that's what happens when big investors are laser-focused on making as much money as possible instead of also trying to drive innovation forward.

IMO, the inability to separate the two is a major reason why we have such significant financial bubbles in the tech sector.