[rcMgD2BwE72F]

>Things don't look so good for everything that has to do with Musk. Today like this, tomorrow like that

Such as? Except for FSD, his record is unmatched AFAIK when you take into account the novelty / complexity / difficulty.

One example, and certainly his main achievement: he said Tesla would sell and produce half a million cars by 2020, back in early 2014, and they hit that number with a 93.6% precision. https://youtu.be/BwUuo6e10AM?t=156

[michaelt]

Some of Musk's stuff is great - other stuff isn't.

SpaceX? Great. Starlink? Sounds neat. Tesla? Pioneered electric cars with respectable performance and range.

But on the other hand, where's the hyperloop? Where's the affordable tunnelling? Where's the $35k Tesla - not available for order on the website, that's for sure. Where's the miniature submarine for rescuing children trapped in caves? Why has my buddy in Europe been waiting over a year for his powerwall to be delivered? Why are these norwegian tesla owners on hunger strike? Where's the full self driving, with taxi service? Why on earth would anyone want to buy Twitter?

Makes it very difficult to know which of Musk's statements are just spitballing, which are unrealistic timescale guesses and which can be relied on.

Getting any serious project architecturally 'locked in' to a special type of CPU you can only get from Tesla would be a bold move.

[croes]

It's simple, SpaceX, Tesla and Starlink are evolutions of existing technology.

FSD, Hyperloop and such would be revolution like out of a Sci-Fi movie. They fail all because Musk like would like to have those things but in reality these things are much more complicated as he says.

[croes]

How is the Las Vegas tunnel going? Or the brain implant?

He is good at marketing and developing existing technology.

But of his announced revolutions, none works.

[baq]

yes, you still write checks to pay online and rocket boosters to this day are single use $100M pieces of hardware that we throw away into the ocean after each use.

seriously. musk is shady and weird, more so in the last couple of years, but come on.

[croes]

It's about the perception of Musk. He built some successful companies but he is not Tony Stark as people tend him to see. He is a salesman not an genius inventor.

Don't expect FSD in the near future and don't expect a Mars colony.

[baq]

FSD, especially the way he was describing it, was a blunder. the Mars city is a pipe dream... but I absolutely understand why it makes people follow him - he's the only one who set out to build a private space company with the purpose to actually get to Mars, with the side effect of completely uprooting the space launch industry. the achievements are undeniable, but it's the vision that makes the perception be so surprisingly good still. there's literally nobody else who says things like that and has the means to even try.