[polygamous_bat]

I wonder if there is some selection bias going on. One hypothesis could be that the people who are financially more responsible (and thus are more likely to be approved for a new credit card) are also the people who are unlikely to apply for a new credit card just after seeing an ad in a website. Thus, credit karma ad clickers self-select to a lower success rate than what their model predicted.

[spullara]

I'm honestly surprised more weren't denied given that folks that have no credit for good reason would be the most likely to apply for credit.