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Batteries are not produced at a scale nearly large enough to be impactful. The world consumes 2,500 TWh of electricity per hour. And that's set to increase as less wealthy countries develop and start demanding A/C, street lights, etc. And on top of that, electricity production is only ~40% of carbon emissions (meaning, electrifying heating, transport, metallurgy, etc. will drive up electricity demand even further). By comparison, the world produces 300-400 GWh of batteries each year. Most of which is going to electronics and electric vehicles. Battery production has been increasing, but it's unclear if the supply of input materials can keep up. The price of lithium jumped 400% last year: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium In short, the chart on the right is not something to be taken for granted: https://www.tsungxu.com/content/images/size/w1600/2022/01/so... Moore's law is the exception, not the norm, because making chips faster works by making transistors smaller. This doesn't apply to most products, as even zero manufacturing costs cannot bring cost below input materials. Imagine the cost of a car went from $500,000 in 1910, $50,000 in 1920, and $5,000 in 1930. Is is safe to assume that a car would cost $5 in 1960 and $0.50 in 1970? |
We are electrifying heating and transport. As a result about 80% of end-use energy will end up being electricity.