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by ghaff
1386 days ago
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If the $1m "solves your financial problems" or is otherwise life-changing, you should almost certainly take the sure thing. As other discussions suggest, once you get into maybe the $3m-$5m net worth range, you presumably already don't have financial problems and another $1m is nice but not really transformative whereas $50m would be even though not a sure thing. Even for a one time event, at some point it makes more sense to place the bet depending on a number of factors. If it's hard to conceive of in this scenario, pick numbers about which it's easier to have intuition. What if you could take $10 for certain vs. a 50% chance of getting $500? Or pick some other values with the same ratio. 50% in this case just means a coin flip. You're right that no one gets the expected value. They get zero or they get $50m. But that may be a good bet depending on circumstances. |
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