[erdos4d]

If the US actually started using its military to hit these guys, what would stop them from sending a thousand guys into a large chemical or nuclear plant and creating a disaster that wiped out a city, or more? I find this sort of jingo rhetoric disturbing because the US has never faced an enemy with thousands of troops inside the US and the funding of a nation state. I can imagine an idiot like Trump actually starting something like this up.

[teddyh]

> If the US actually started using its military to hit these guys, what would stop them from sending a thousand guys into a large chemical or nuclear plant and creating a disaster that wiped out a city, or more?

I mean, yes, they could, but would they? What would be the realistic result of such an action? Would the US then stop and go “Well, I guess we’ll have to stop antagonizing the cartels.”. I would guess that such a thing would instead be a Pearl Harbor moment, and I think the cartels know this, too. The cartels don’t want to act out your personal nightmare scenario; they want to do things to make the US stop bothering the cartels. Instead of mindlessly scare-mongering, figure out what that action would be, and ask yourself if a war with the cartels is worth it. It might or might not be, but be realistic about it.

[erdos4d]

I'm talking about if the US already was at war with them and hitting them hard. I don't see what would restrain them at that point.

[teddyh]

Military actions have purposes, which do not include acting out your nightmare scenarios and being as horrible as possible. There’s a reason regular armies don’t do that kind of thing; it does not aid their purpose. And I don’t see how such an action could ever aid the cartels.

War is not a game where each side gradually loses their “restraint”. Instead, each side carefully considers each possible action and its consequences, and then does whatever action seems to lead to the best end result.

[erdos4d]

Hold on amigo, have you seen how cartels operate? They actually do just do as horrible of a thing as possible, just because the top people want to be monsters and show their enemies they can slaughter them. They hang their gutted enemies off bridges, or decimate a whole neighborhood, or you name it. I think you assume they would play by your rules in a war. They might just decide to erase Houston so they can watch those people die in a gas cloud.

[teddyh]

> They actually do just do as horrible of a thing as possible

Yes, the do that when their enemies are individual people, since that tactic works on those. I doubt the same tactics would work on armies or nation states.

> so they can watch those people die in a gas cloud.

You still seem to think that the cartels do things merely for their own cruel amusement. I, on the other hand, believe that cruel amusement is luxury which they allow themselves only as long as it works.

[erdos4d]

> You still seem to think that the cartels do things merely for their own cruel amusement. I, on the other hand, believe that cruel amusement is luxury which they allow themselves only as long as it works.

I agree with you on this. I also think it would absolutely work, just like it works in Mexico. I also think it would be the first choice of people accustomed to it working.

[MichaelCollins]

> I would guess that such a thing would instead be a Pearl Harbor moment, and I think the cartels know this, too.

What else might that war teach us?

There are 10 million Mexican-Americans by birth in America, and 37 million by ancestry. If America went to war with Mexico, I fear there would be efforts to intern Mexican-Americans as Japanese-Americans once were.

Such a war is a horrible idea for everybody. It would create conditions in Mexico and America that are far worse than the present status quo.

[lotsofpulp]

Interning 47M people out of 333M, especially when those 47M represent a large portion of younger, working age people, does not seem like it would go well.

[MichaelCollins]

Certainly not, it would be a disaster.

[ifsothen]

Are you saying that Mexican immigrants and descendants in the US would be loyal to the Mexican government?

[MichaelCollins]

No. I am describing what would happen: the American government wrongfully persecuting Mexican-Americans, as it once wrongfully persecuted Japanese-Americans.

This is not a description of what I think should happen, which is this: American and Mexico should not go to war, because it would inevitably lead to a human rights disaster.

[vorpalhex]

The same thing that prevents any enemy from sending a thousand guys to any other sensitive site - men with guns (and intel and air support and armor).

Occasionally the cartel and Texas guard do exchange fire.

[erdos4d]

You think that if a thousand cartel guys showed up at a nuke plant with the intention of melting it down that armor and airstrikes would help matters? I think that would just help them actually.

[helloworld11]

The Mexican cartels are notably wary of messing with U.S police agents and police/military/border security agencies. There are isolated cases of very foolish sicarios or smaller, more irresponsible organized crime cells playing at threats against U.S border agents or at U.S agents inside Mexico but it's rare and often discouraged brutally by the larger cartels. The simple reason why is they know that with the U.S government, the subversion they regularly practice with pathetically corrupt Mexican authorities works much, much less and goes completely out the window if a U.S police agent dies by their hands. The U.S government strongly underscored this with the cartels by spending decades and God knows how much money diligently pursuing every last person they could find who had any connection to the Kike Camarena murder. The lesson hasn't been forgotten by the bigger cartel bosses, even today.

[edgyquant]

Do you think a thousand people will make it that far? Intelligence services will detect and stop them before they reach such a size.

This isn’t something the government hopes doesn’t happen: it’s something they actively work hard at everyday to ensure doesn’t happen.

[erdos4d]

I absolutely do think they could. They operate vast smuggling networks in the US right now with near impunity, as one proof of this capability. Also, US intelligence is pretty bad when it counts. It didn't catch 9-11 or the fall of Afghanistan or the Soviet Union. Why would it detect a raid on a nuke plant?

[vorpalhex]

...Yes. If you kill the people attacking the sensitive site, they will be unable to attack the sensitive site on account of being dead.

A thousand man force is a battalion. The cartels have no real armor and no air support. No heavy weapons. No training.

The US Army fields 31 brigades. A brigade is 5 battalions.

For every cartel member in your theoretical force, there are ~149 trained, armed, active duty service members in deployable condition for combat roles.

That doesn't include artillery, sustainment, the US Airforce or the US Navy. I am also not including guard teams which are another 27 brigades.

Your theoretical cartel force would also have to go through the Texas State Guard (1,700 people) and US Border Patrol.

[ifsothen]

It's not "jingo rhetoric." Many of the government leaders south of the border are literally in cahoots with the cartels to commit thousands of murders a year, either directly or through peddling fentanyl, in the US. The rest of them have decided to go along with it out of fear. That is an act of war. The US should respond wisely and carefully, but people should remember these are literally ongoing acts of war committed against us. And what you propose the cartels would respond with is unlikely to work and would only elicit the directed ire of the US at the particular groups that ordered it, so would not be a rational move.

We are spending billions of dollars and killing many Russian soldiers and civilians to fight Putin, but Mexico is responsible for more American deaths and mayhem than Putin ever dream of.

[chasd00]

a war with Mexico (or any significant military intervention) means 1000x more people stream over the Southern border compared to now.

[MichaelCollins]

And the practicalities of a war would necessitate an effort to stop that, to prevent the spread of enemy combatants behind the front line. Even if you search everybody passing through the border for weapons.. ...it's America. They can get weapons here.

The inevitable result is a massive human rights disaster, that makes the present status quo look like paradise.

[ifsothen]

It's would actually be really easy to completely close the border if there was the political will for it. The US spends way more money on frivolous things every year than it would take to fully militarily fortify the entire border.

[soperj]

In this sense, Americans funding the cartels through drug buying is also an act of war.