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by noodlenotes 1388 days ago
One death from overdose is more impactful than one death from Covid, but if the increase in number of deaths from Covid (0 -> 400,000/year [1]) is much greater than the increase in deaths from overdoses (78,000 -> 100,000/year [2]), then Covid is the primary cause of the decline. Deaths from accidents also only increased 39,000 -> 43,000/year [3].

Let's say the average age of someone who dies from Covid is 75. Their life expectancy is another 11 years. [4] And someone who dies from an overdose or accident at 30 would have had another 48 years on average. There would have to be (400,000*11)/48 = 92,000 (rough math) additional overdose and accident deaths to come close to the impact Covid has had on life expectancy decline.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2021/...

[3] https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-tra...

[4] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html