[pc2g4d]

You may be right that "unconditional surrender" and occupation are prerequisites for the sort of transformation that Germany and Japan underwent. But the collapse of empire as experienced by Russia vis-a-vis the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact may have been sufficiently traumatic that such a transformation could have been triggered.

The tragedy of not having a "Marshall Plan" for the former communist bloc is that we will never know if it would have worked. There was no guarantee, but at this point, to me it seems like a terrible lost opportunity.

But perhaps, as China's dominance becomes increasingly uncomfortable for Russia, things in time may change. A reformed Russia integrated into the "western" alliance... one can still dream, however faintly.