[cheath]

What is the point that still stands, exactly? There are peaks and troughs with a clear downward trend. If your point is that in that trend, some years over 10 year periods look similar, then you would be correct. But in making that point, you risk drawing the wrong conclusion from the data.

[soperj]

My point was that you shouldn't base a prognosis on a melt year that has happened once in a 40 year record, when it so far has been an anomaly.

[bobkazamakis]

data that I don't like is an abberation. data that I do like is proof!

[soperj]

that's nonsense. It hasn't happened again in a decade despite the last 5 years being some of the warmest on record, and there was a cyclone that ripped through arctic dispersing sea ice in early August that year. It's clearly an anomaly.

[Retric]

Being 2 standard deviations from the trend line is hardly an anomaly, just expected variance over a sample that size.

0.05 * 40 = 2.