[ramoq]

Lex Fridman’s podcast had an ex-CIA agent on it recently and he mentioned how bcs of issues like this in Europe the war in Ukraine has to end by the fall. His words were “NATO needs Russian sanctions lifted”. He implied the war will be over by the fall (in his assessment).

[peteradio]

What does this imply exactly? Europe acquiesces to Russia in totality, thus ending the war? What is Russia's completed goal in their current incursion?

[bsaul]

Ukraine split in two : one pro-russia in the east, another pro-west in the west.

Half a loss for the russian that showed the world their military wasn’t as good as they thought. Half a loss for the EU that showed their economical weakness as they couldn’t make a medium country’s economy explode even if they did all they had in their power. And globally a huge win for the US.

Honestly, i hope this serves as a warning for the EU citizen: we have very average people taking decisions in the EU governance.

[timeon]

> Half a loss for the EU that showed their economical weakness as they couldn’t make a medium country’s economy explode even if they did all they had in their power.

This goes also for the US.

[christophilus]

Didn’t listen to the podcast, but that seems right. The world’s oil producers have everyone by the shorthairs, and it will be undeniable in a few month’s time. I think Russia will get away with whatever they please because of this. It’ll be interesting to see what the narrative looks like this time next year.

[short_sells_poo]

Russia has been biding their time, occasionally showing that they are willing to turn off the tap.

They clearly want to save the weapon for winter though. When temperatures drop, Russia will sadly have the entirety of Europe by the balls. It is simply unthinkable that the population will be willing to stomach blackouts or not being able to heat their homes.

I don't see a way out but the unfortunate outcome that Ukraine will be sacrificed.

[ZeroGravitas]

Seize the windfall profits going to gas producers and give it to people to find non-gas ways to heat their homes.

[lucb1e]

Not sure what I could buy that will heat my home (waiting times on solar panels are measured in months and wind turbines in years), and cash itself doesn't burn that well.

But I also don't see this as being that big a deal. Even if we had to turn off fuel for 2/3rds of the homes, people will just go to a home that can be heated and stay warm together. We'll survive and probably make new friends doing it even if we'd complain the whole time.

Or people learn to heat themselves up instead of the whole room, which uses less than 10% of the energy. We're an inventive species and in Europe we certainly have the means, we just need the motivation.

[alephu5]

Insulation is your best bet

[short_sells_poo]

The profit is going Russia who supplies the majority of Europe's gas. There's nothing to seize since they can turn off the tap and Europe will literally freeze.

Basically, Europe is buying less than half the usual supply of gas at 6x the price right now :(

[rasz]

Arranging a little explosive Nord Stream accident should be quite easy. No more Russian profits for couple of months.

[ZeroGravitas]

Norway made three times as much this year from gas sales.

It's a market, and the thing that is causing the price spikes is Russia cutting off their supply.

They'll still profit from the higher prices on the reduced supply, but so will everyone else who sells on the market at the market price. Basically war profiteering.

[mimikatz]

Economics is a science. If you try to push one way on the market price you will get problems on the other side, this is the same way you can't get past the laws of thermodynamics) . The cost of reducing people's profits (or cost is what we are talking about) will be shortages because people will still be willing to pay for more electricity at a higher price, they just won't be able to find it because it was sold at a lower price.

[generalizations]

Considering even people here on HN foresaw that exact outcome within days/weeks of the initial invasion, the current situation stinks of some extreme incompetence within NATO.

[short_sells_poo]

I genuinely don't understand what was the plan. Maybe they were hoping that Putin will fall before then? That'd be very shortsighted and a fundamental misunderstanding of the regime.

[generalizations]

I agree. Maybe they believed the reports that Putin was dying? Maybe they counted on guerrilla fighters forcing Putin to give up?

Maybe they just knew that after building russia up as the "big bad" for the last long while (or maybe that was just the US), it would be political suicide for whichever politician first suggested capitulation. Probably still is political suicide. The prisoners dilemma at its finest.

[rasz]

A much easier plan delivering similar outcome would involve blowing up Nord Stream 1 & 2 right now.

[rr808]

You give in to a bully once you're done for. They'll just keep wanting more.

[bsaul]

That’s the logic we’ve followed. However we rushed like little kids, making the same mistake putin did with ukraine: we thought by putting enough pressure, russia would explode in a few weeks.

It seems obvious now that the people in charge in EU lacked serious strategical skills. We followed our emotions, did a lot of communication, we made ourselves look good, but ultimately we could end up with the worst of all options: ukraine split in two, and an economical disaster for the whole EU.

Only the US will exit from the crisis with a fantastic improvement (like every time europe starts an internal war).

[rr808]

> ukraine split in two, and an economical disaster for the whole EU.

Well no, the worst option was going to happen, Russia takes over Ukraine, then takes over Transnistra/Modova, solidifies its hold over Belarus, then why not take over Eastern Europe again. Splitting Ukraine and having expensive gas and a recession isn't so bad. Of course taking back Crimea is what we should be aiming for.

[ZeroGravitas]

CIA favouring invasions of other countries and corporate profits over anything that vaguely smells like socialism and helps ordinary people sounds historically consistent at least.