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by jiggawatts 1398 days ago
> really curious if any of the downvoters could mention their rationale.

Not downvoting, but I used to be a huge "UFO fan" around the ages of 8-11. I read book after book, all breathlessly outlining the "reams of evidence" available. I watched documentaries on television, saw UFO topics covered in the newspaper, and I had a shelf full of books all in agreement. Must be true, right?

Except that even as young child I started noticing that all of the photos were blurry. All of them. Focus dispels UFOs just like turning on the light dispels the monster in the bedroom.[0]

Years later I read a book by a "UFO fan" who remained a fan into his adulthood, and got the opportunity to research them as his day job. He was looking into crop circles and cattle mutilation specifically around the time of their peak popularity[1] but as a result of his investigations he rapidly converted from a life-long believer to a sceptic.

Why?

Because he noticed that that evidence of UFO visitations respected state borders. Specifically, there are state-level laws[2] in the USA related to things such as insurance claims related to dead livestock. Cows are stupid, eat poisonous or dangerous things all the time and die. One dead cow represent a loss of hundreds to thousands of dollars. Many dead cows could be a serious financial problem, so there is insurance available for lifestock. The policies apply differently in different jurisdictions, and some would cover "unexplained external causes" such as little green men anally probing cattle for mysterious reasons, and in some areas the policies would not cover this. Unsurprisingly, cattle mutilations and the associated evidence like crop circles would only turn up in areas where the insurance covered it, and never in areas where it wouldn't, even if that was across the road in a paddock owned by the same farmer. Odd huh?

One theory -- that sells books -- is that little green or grey men visit our planet across interstellar distances and amuse themselves by cutting holes into cattle. But not low-value livestock like chickens. Just the high-value ones, like cattle.

The other theory is that selling books and making insurance claims is the only reason anyone talks about any of this seriously. That people see a dozen dead cows, have nothing they can legitimately put on an insurance claim, and are staring down the barrel of financial ruin. What to do? Just drive the tractor in circles over still green crops, bending them down, call Janice from the local news, claim that the circle is impossible, and point at the dead cows you cut a few times with a sharp box cutter a few hours before the news crew turned up. Suddenly, there's "evidence" that you can put on an insurance claim and your farm will survive until the next year.

> many official and declassified sources

The word "declassified" makes UFO fans excited because it's got all the elements of an official secret that they uncovered through their intelligence and sleuthing. It's the same addictive narrative that made QAnon popular.

Most (all?) military observations of potential enemy aircraft are classified! That means nothing. The value of these observations isn't particularly higher than anyone else's either. If one young pilot sees a splotch on the IR feed that "moves oddly", people run off with that and claim that "government has evidence of UFOs!" This recent one is the best example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rO_M0hLlJ-Q

At first blush that looks exactly like an optical effect such as Glory [3] that appears to move only because the observer is moving with respect to nearby clouds. The background is moving, and Glory remains stationary relative to the observer because the Sun doesn't move in the sky like the clouds do. It "accelerates away" because the IR camera is on a gimbal on the tip of a Javeline missile and reached its limit. It stops tracking the "target" which then seems to "shoot away" in the picture.

This and similar "evidence" is about as good as it gets. I've never seen anything even remotely convincing. Nonetheless, book after book just collates and rehashes the same evidence, including pictures long since discredited[0] as clear fakes. The authors get paid and can feed their families. The readers get to be entertained just like I was when I was a kid.

Everyone gets something, but we don't get to invite visiting alien dignitaries to speak at a UN convention in much the same way that Air Traffic Control doesn't schedule flights differently on Christmas Eve to avoid hitting Santa.

[0] Several famous UFO photos that adorned book covers published by legitimate print houses turned out to be chandeliers that the photographer had thrown into the sky like a frisbee and then quickly snapped an out-of-focus picture of. On commission for the print house.

[1] Speaking of which, isn't that odd all by itself? Crop circles weren't a "thing" until they were. And then vanished again. While they were popular, like a meme on Reddit, there were all sorts of interesting variations. Similarly, the aliens themselves evolve just like bad Fifty Shades of Grey fan art. Some traits are never mentioned by any "witnesses" until after a particular story, and then it's a common trait many people claim to have seen.

[2] I read this over 15 years ago so I might be confusing a legal boundary with a corporate "coverage area" boundary in a contract, but the gist of the story is the same either way.

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glory_(optical_phenomenon)

4 comments

I've been a UFO skeptic for quite some time, but the Ariel School Incident [1] is one that lives rent-free in my head. The eyewitness accounts make it even more convincing, because

1. They don't exactly agree with each other (which is to be expected since eyewitness testimony is extremely unreliable, it would be more suspicious if they id)

2. Many of these people repeat the story years after the incident, as grown adults. As far as I know, they haven't received a single cent for their troubles.

3. It's not like these kids had much exposure to the pop culture idea of UFOs - yet their drawings are very similar to what we think of when we think UFO.

[1] : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_School_UFO_incident

A lot of UFO videos seem to be some kind of optical effect. The object rotates exactly in tune to when the HUD shows that the camera is rotating. The object suddenly zips away as soon as the HUD shows that the camera has suddenly stopped rotating to track the object. You see these obvious things in some of the most famously regularly brought up videos like the Tic Tac and Gimbal UFO videos, and almost nobody picks up on these. Seeing UFO fans still bring up those videos is the best evidence they just want to play make-believe instead of understand anything.
How do you explain the visual confirmation by the pilots as well as the objects showing up on radar? It's fine to be skeptical but don't be so dismissive when you yourself are leaving out important details that negate your claim.
Many of those videos with "eyewitness" corroboration have to be taken in context.

For example, the video clips typically show a small blurry splotch a few pixels in size. What's not always obvious is what level of magnification is used. In many cases its a digital zoom on top of a telephoto lens. The unaided human eye would see just a tiny speck, which could be anything, and may not even be the same "object"!

The other context is pilots rarely fly in empty skies, especially military aviators. Many "sightings" have been in the context of drills, war games, or similar. The pilots may not be aware of things such as small drones used by officers for monitoring, or secret testing of UAVs. E.g.: A question that designers would like to answer is: "Can this stealth drone be spotted in realistic scenarios by pilots not told about its presence?"

Etc...

> Except that even as young child I started noticing that all of the photos were blurry. All of them. Focus dispels UFOs just like turning on the light dispels the monster in the bedroom.

Not exactly. Jacques Vallée and others have spent a lot of time addressing the question of why UFO photos are always blurry and out of focus. His ideas about it are fascinating. There’s also a lot of photos that aren’t blurry, such as the 1971 Cote UFO. It doesn’t mean they are alien, but there’s definitely something real getting photographed that’s still unidentified. I’ve also been interested in how writers like Arthur C. Clarke and Liu Cixin address the topic of how an advanced alien species could control physics, the noosphere, and the human mind itself.

> 1971 Cote UFO

That could be anything. Damage to the film negative is a simple explanation!

Any single picture is basically just fan-art. I and many others with a reasonable level of scepticism wouldn't accept anything other than the same UFO or "design" of UFO turning up in many photos, ideally from some sort of scientific sky survey array run by non-UFO-fanatic astronomer types.

In fact, several such survey systems are being built right now, and a few are already operational.

The operational ones have not found anything.

Strange, isn't it that the better the quality of the survey, the less likely UFOs are to turn up in the data?

You’re preaching to the choir. I am very much a skeptical materialist. The problem is that there are a significant number of unknowns and unidentified reports that have never been explained. And those are the ones we are talking about.
Neither the comment your responding to nor the paper the submission is on deal with either cattle mutilation nor crop circles
The linked paper on arXiv[1] starts off with: " We observe a significant number of objects whose nature is not clear. Flights of single, group and squadrons of the ships were detected" (emphasis mine)

The word "ships" is a bit of a stretch to say the least without some really good evidence.

What's their "scientific" evidence? In the synopsis they say: "Adobe colour system" which... umm... how can I put this politely... they looked at the pictures in Photoshop!

The calibrated scientific instrument that they used to quantitively gather evidence for visiting aliens is the eyedropper tool.[3]

This is what I'm talking about. There's no evidence, just people promoting themselves to make a buck, get published, make insurance claims, or just have a laugh. Call me when they have an in-focus picture that's not just a splotch a few pixels across.[2]

[1] There is no special requirement, peer review, or any of the actual scientific process required for publishing a pre-print on arXiv. It's just a dumping ground for students, and is about as authoritative as GitHub.

[2] They have their photos in the paper. Go have a look, they're hilarious! These could be anything, such as airliners, satellites, or whatever your imagination can come up with: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2208.11215.pdf

[3] This feels like kicking a puppy, but I have to point out that in all PC colour systems, including Adobe RGB are non-linear and require gamma correction to obtain scientifically-relevant linear light intensity levels. The Photoshop eyedropper tool specifically does not do this, returning the encoded non-linear values. The paper mentions none of this, yet they use the RGB values directly in formulas to estimate metrics like distance. They also mention "RGB spectrum" as if that means anything without the context of the camera filters, sensor response curves, etc...

I don't think they are using Photoshop, but that would be hilarious :D It's just the camera sensor's color space (Adobe RGB). Anyway, gamma correction should be problem, unless they shoot raw images and in this case the color space gets out of the equation.

I was curious, so I found another paper by the original authors and the color correction is more carefully considered, since they seem to take into account the sensor response too [0].

[0] - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.07403.pdf

This paper also doesn't mention "gamma" and uses the word "linear" only in other contexts.

Even if they're using RAW photos, the response curve is still non-linear because the individual pixels "saturate" as they get closer to the maximum exposure. This shifts colours, because a bright colourful source will saturate the pixels of the matching colour first, and then the other colours a bit later. A bright yellow meteor trail will saturate red and green, and then blue.

Their entire method and conclusion all hinges on analysing the relative intensities of RGB colours of photos of very bright meteor trails.

These guys are so unscientific it's almost a parody of science. It reads like a bunch of high school students doing "science" with their dad's camera, and then a kind professor submits their homework to arXiv to make them feel like they're Just Like The Big Boys.

Having said that, there is some amazing real scientific research being done with CotS camera equipment!

Examples:

https://astronomytechnologytoday.com/2018/06/28/miniwasp-par...

https://petapixel.com/2022/07/25/telescope-made-from-multipl...

https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1561833

That last one is a beautiful example of how to do science right, with detailed calibration data and characterisation of every aberration in the system.

>These guys are so unscientific...

Naaaaa, this is not my field, so I assume I'm missing some crucial pieces of information (which the paper apparently lack too, I agree on that).

>A bright yellow meteor trail will saturate red and green, and then blue.

Here I assume that they can do their job, but maybe you are right. Since they are doing their observations at two "meteor stations", maybe they know what they are talking about though.

>Their entire method and conclusion all hinges on analisying the relative intensities of RGB colours of photos of very bright meteor trails.

They use a simple mathematical model, with even other obvious limitations, like considering the atmosphere homogenous, so?

Here I'm citing the calibration part (which is a bit disappointing, true :) at the end of page 4:

...The color chart in Fig. 10 allows us to evaluate the color characteristics of the Moon and check the calibration of our cameras. The Moon has a color relative to the sky background: B - G = -2.5 log (1.7 / 2.7) = 0.5. We take into account the color correction in the Jhonson B - V system according to [x] due to Rayleigh scattering equal to 0.14 magnitude. Let’s get the estimate B - V of the Moon: B - V = 0.50 + 0.60 - 0.14 = 0.96. The actual color of the Moon is B - V = 0.91 according to [1] and differs from our estimate by 0.05 magnitudes within the photometric error. In Figure 9 we can see a local feature (water tower). The color diagram of the tower in Fig. 12 gives a distance estimate of 0 ± 1 km. The actual distance is about 300 meters. Thus, colorimetric measurements confirm our estimates...

EDIT: page 4 of the UAP paper

They're not accounting for exposure levels anywhere that I can see, but to be honest I just skimmed it quickly looking for the expected formulas.

It's easy to write garbage in the style of a scientific paper. Use LaTeX, the right fonts, layout, and tone and most people will immediately stop questioning the content. Pepper it with formulas and it starts to look like wisdom delivered by serious men in white lab coats.

I studied physics with a particular focus on optics because I wanted (and achieved) a career in computer graphics. I wanted a good solid background on light transport and physically accurate rendering techniques.

This paper covers about 5% of what you would expect to see in a serious publication, if that. The calibration "technique" they use is hilariously bad. The assumptions are invalid. Obvious instrument limitations aren't even mentioned let alone corrected for.

Compare to the last link in my previous post. The difference is night and day.

Similarly, for a vaguely related recent example, take a look at how the JWST telescope calibration is done: https://jwst-pipeline.readthedocs.io/en/latest/jwst/linearit...

Take a look at the menu on the left! There's section after section after section that covers every aspect of this instrument! Fundamentally, it's "just" a fancy camera with a CCD/CMOS sensor, optics, and similar limits. It's the same problem space, so it's a good example of how this can be done properly.

Admittedly, JWST has a huge budget, but even amateurs do similar things when performing "image stacking", and that's just for making pretty pictures, not for scientific publication: http://deepskystacker.free.fr/english/theory.htm#Calibration

If I were given a budget of just a few thousand dollars and a year to write a PhD or something, I would:

- Get a few identical cameras and lenses, ideally prime lenses. Budget permitting, the best kind are the B&W digital ones, like this one: https://leica-camera.com/en-AU/photography/cameras/m/m10-mon...

- Mount three or more of them on something sturdy facing the same patch of sky, at least a hundred meters apart in a large triangle or other similar shape. Ideally, several at each spot aligned in parallel but using different, well-characterised filters. Or a single camera with rapidly swappable filters, which would be within reach of a student's budget using 3D printing.

- At each location have a GPS receiver as a timing source. Handheld receivers suffice, and many Arduino-type boards have modules for this. Also have a "weather station" measuring wind speed, humidity, and temperature. Also have a thermal probe stuck to the sensor of the camera, or very near it.

- Perform detailed lab calibration of each camera and lens pair. Repeat for each filter if using filters. Use a proper instrument like a spectrophotometer, which every physics lab will most likely have lying around somewhere. This need to be performed at the same focus ("infinity") and across a range of intensities. Ideally at different temperatures also.

- Calibrate in the field. E.g.: align the photos using stars or perform similar cross-checks between each camera. Use GPS data relayed from airliners to verify the altitude computation from stereopsis. Use aircraft that you know are "white" to cross-check atmospheric conditions. Fly drones up a few kilometres with blinking LED lasers on them of various wavelengths. Etc...

- Use manual focus, synchronized camera settings, and take photos every second or so using GPS timing for accurate sync. Ensure to stay well within the "middle" of the dynamic range of the sensors.

- Collect the information for analysis, ideally over weeks or months. Multiple cameras with different perspectives allows massively more accurate estimates of a range of parameters, especially height, speed, size, etc... It simultaneously helps eliminate spurious sensor problems, bugs, birds, raindrops, and other confounding factors.

This could be done with a few thousand dollars and the data could keep many students busy publishing good papers for years. You could write papers on cloud formation, bird migration, raptor hunting statistics, accuracy of aircraft transponders, lightning frequency, meteors, satellites, and even cover military topics such as spotting drones! Computer Science students could get involved with AI analysis of the data, efficient storage, real-time analysis and tracking with longer telephoto lenses, etc...

This is what real science looks like, even if done on a budget. There are teams out there basically doing this or some variant right now!

>It's just the camera sensor's color space (Adobe RGB)

Sensors don't have a color space. It's a transformation applied in the camera software. Unfortunately no commercially available camera either exposes using the sensor data output itself, leading to often considerable non linearity between the measurable output values and the actual exposure. This is applied to the raw file for exposure and post processing raw conversion. You need to analyse the non de-bayered raw files directly to assess what's happening in the captured data.

What if UFOs blur images taken from them? We already have similar technology that blocks cameras using laser.
Then detect the interference.

It's a similar problem to "jamming" in military radar systems. You might be half-blind while jammed, but you're aware that you are being jammed in the same way that you won't miss someone shining a torch in your face.

Multiple cameras across a wide range of wavelengths (UV-Visible-IR) would be fantastically difficult to hide from, for a range of parameters such as UFO size, altitude, speed, etc... To the point where it starts to become physically impossible, irrespective of technology level.

For example, various militaries have looked into tracking high-altitude spy planes via the disturbance they make in the air. You can camouflage the plane all you want, but you can't stop air from existing.