[asveikau]

The Ukraine conflict made it clear that Russia bluffs its capabilities pretty severely.

They frequently make statements that can be construed as threats to EU and NATO states, eg. some jackass in the Duma saying they don't recognize the sovereignty of the Baltic states. A few years ago it seemed like it might not be a bluff. And with Donald Trump openly bashing NATO... It would have been conceivable that Putin could attack and assume the west wouldn't care.

But the Ukraine conflict made it clear that it's not possible. The west cares, and the Russian military is pretty weak.