[paganel]

Romania (from where I’m from) recorded the least number of monthly deaths in June 2022 since at least 4 or 5 years (I’m on my phone, I have the Excel file with the stats themselves on my computer at home), and, comparing June 2022 to the average of June months for the 5 years before the pandemic, we had 15% less deaths (so you could say we had 15% “less” excess deaths, if that’s even a term).

The explanation is simple, most of our excess deaths happened during the pandemic itself, October 2021 had close to 100% more excess deaths compared to previous pre-pandemic October months, and while that was the worst month for us in terms of extra deaths there were still others with 30-40-50% excess deaths.

In other words it looks like, to put it bluntly, many of the people who would have died in June 2022 out of non-Covid causes had the pandemic not existed actually died in 2020 or 2021 because of said pandemic. In countries like Spain or Portugal not that many people died during the pandemic, hence those countries are now getting “out of it” with a weakened populace, a populace who dies “more” because of that “weakness” generated by the societal effects of the pandemic (less access to face-to-face doctor consultations, for example).

A true science-based society will try to look at all these numbers in 5 years’ time with a neutral mind, so that when the next pandemic comes we will be better prepared to make decisions about lockdowns (“is it really worth it to close everything down if people will die nevertheless when the pandemic ends?”), but I have a feeling that won’t happen.