[akelly]

Bigger chips have much worse yields, which is why phone chips get the latest nodes first. No way they launch 3nm with M2 Max. I was expecting 3nm A16 and 5nm M2 Max for release this fall and then the 3nm M3 progression next year. But they normally start iPhone HVM in July so A16 must be 5nm, there's no way Apple would delay the iPhone launch to November, it's too soon for M3, I have no idea what they're producing either.

[eis]

Yea normally we'd expect M2 Pro/Max etc to be on N5P like the M2. It can't be M3 because M2 was just released. A16 is way too far out. So what does that leave for N3 production? Either it's M2 Pro etc. or something completely different.

Actually thinking a bit more... there is the Apple VR headset which seems to be getting closer to production and I'm sure it could use the efficiency from the new node plus is priced high enough to warrant the costs. Some speak of a launch beginning of 2023 with 1.5M units produced. That would be bang on in terms of schedule.

[rowanG077]

Why is A16 way to far out? A15 is 1.5 years old.

[dwaite]

There are rumors that only the Pro models will get A16, and that they will have specs that justify a base price increase like more flash memory by default.

So it isn't outside the realm of possibility that the A16 design is 3nm, and they will delay its launch and/or otherwise make it less desirable to deal with lower initial production yield.

[eis]

The iPhone 14 with A16 will be announced September 7th it looks like. People will have them within a month from now. There is no way it can be N3 as it takes months from HVM start to actual devices hitting the shelves. The iPhone 14 has already millions of devices sitting in warehouses.

The A16 will be N4P I'd guess. In my initial comment I should have said A17 for N3 instead of A16.

[terafo]

> * The contract chipmaker will deliver the first products made using its N3 node to its customers early next year. *

They can't release 3nm A16 this year. I'm pretty sure it's on something like N4P.