No deterrent is effective against a regime sufficiently detached from reality.
Putin called it a "special military operation" for a reason. It was supposed to be like Czechoslovakia in 1968. The troops go in, reach Kyiv in a few days, and take over without any real fighting. Ukraine was not supposed to be able and willing to resist. Russian military didn't even know there was going to be a war, which is why it failed so catastrophically in the first days.
The outcome of this war is going to determine whether international trade is still an effective deterrent. If Russian economy depends so much on Western technology that they will lose in the long term regardless of the oucome of the war, this was just the exception that tests the rule. If the West gives up and resumes trading with Russia, the deterrent will be gone.
Russia (Putin) sees Ukraine as basically a subordinate state; likewise with Georgia and Belarus. That would make this action a civil war, which is basically how it's been treated by the international community.
Yeah it did exactly nothing to stop the ongoing war in europe and little to prevent china from brutally overtaking hong long. Meanwhile china is openly flexing muscles around taiwan. If anything its us that are deterred from action - see germany and russia.
Isn't that like the same thing they said before both World War I and II? That the world and trade was too interconnected so that war couldn't break out.
People are very happy to torpedo economic benefits for national pride and sovereignty.
China has been India’s largest trading partner for many years. Yet when there was a recent border dispute, everyone was willing to forego all economic ties in favor of a conflict.
As per HN Guidlines, please don't be snarky. You may have a very valid point, and it is great to back it up with links to more info, but please state what the point you are making is, rather than just a snarky comment with a link
3. Am kind, just busy so i don't have time to summarize for you the paper that you can just as well read yourself. In fact, it has an abstract, which is a summary, right up front.
I remember reading the same argument in the 90s, and it seemed to have a lot of merit. But, experience shows us that it’s not correct.