[jefftk]

I'd bet on that. I'd give Commonwealth Fusion Systems alone 40% in the next 20 years.

More on recent fusion developments: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-f...

[planck01]

I hope you win! I usually get my reality checks from Sabine Hossenfelder, who a while back explained that all these fusion claims are wildly optimistic. You can find her video here: https://youtu.be/LJ4W1g-6JiY

I am no scientist, so it is hard for me to know if team optimistic or team pessimistic is right. But even if it is the latter, I think we should put more money and research on it!

[jefftk]

The video isn't nuts, but it's mostly focused on clearing up a common misconception around what "break even" means. It discusses how ITER is not going to be powering the grid in 2025 (strong agree) but I don't see any discussion of the commercialization projects (of which Commonwealth is the strongest) or discussion of timescales anywhere near 2100.

[mlindner]

> Sabine Hossenfelder

FYI she's largely been debunked as a fear monger. She swings the pendulum too far in the other direction when reality is somewhere in between.

[rini17]

Sources pls?