[nknealk]

I actually think the yield is concerning. For fun, you can plug in your own assumptions to this calculator [0], but with assumptions below, the yield on bonds due 2028 implies a 20% chance of default.

Market price is 0.7/face value of 1/coupon of 3.375 (from the article), payments per year = 1 with 7 payments remaining (you could also do 6, depends on whether they've made a payment this year which I didn't bother looking up), recovery rate of 60% (assumption, the model is really sensitive to this input), and the 5 year treasury rate is around 2.97 percent which I used as the risk free rate.

[0] https://quantwolf.com/calculators/bonddefaultcalc.html

[kragen]

Thank you for quantifying that. I was thinking it meant about a 10% chance of default and about a 10% chance of bankruptcy, and I appreciate the correction.

10% or 20% is "concerning" from some points of view, but what I meant was that creditors still think Coinbase is more likely to be in business 5 years from now than to be bankrupt.