[ZeroGravitas]

I can't tell if these people are just being very picky or if this is yet another front in the constant war to prolong climate change:

> A portion of those credits are put into a buffer account, an insurance mechanism tapped in the event that projects are lost to wildfire, disease, pests or financial risks such as bankruptcy. Those credits are meant to guarantee carbon stocks for at least 100 years. But that promise is falling short as climate change fuels intense wildfires, drought and disease, the researchers said.

> Wildfires have depleted nearly one fifth of that buffer pool in less than a decade, the analysis found.

So, they're generally giving the impression this is all a terrible scam, but the figures they quote suggest that there was planning for fire and diseas, and that the buffer is slightly more depleted than expected after a decade.

And that if lots of trees die, this will "wipe out" the extra carbon credits put aside specifically to cover the eventuality that some trees might die.

[tedivm]

Wiping out 20% of the buffer in 10% of the time it was meant to last is an issue, especially when the things wiping out the buffer are accelerating.

[ZeroGravitas]

I read the paper, they are mostly just being nitpicky.

Which is good. They seem to specialise in data-based approaches to validating whether carbon offsets do what they say.

They're not trying to discredit offsets in general, they're nerding out on subtle details of how these work.

But the story amplifies the nitpicking to the level that other commenters can say "these are just outright fraud with made up numbers" and generally gives a false impression which feeds into the whole climate hoax thing.

When, in reality there's a fairly complex system built-in with certification and incentives and insurance buffers. And that insurance might turn out to not be sufficient, but even if the insurance totally fails, it only then starts to eat away at the benefits.

Note the insurance is pooled and as new projects get added, it spreads the risk further.

Also the trees are spread across 29 states, which diversifies risk from fire and disease.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.93042...