[baobob]

I feel like this definitely needs to be expanded. What makes you think that?

Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility)

They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas

They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created.

They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine

They have the ear and economic heart of China

[pavlov]

All of these are illusions. The currency is propped up by the government because it's not freely exchanged anymore. Europe is making a massive turn away from Russian energy despite the medium-term pain. The Russian military has achieved very little in five months of warfare. And China genuinely doesn't care about Russia. If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.

[ed25519FUUU]

I’m also confused about OP. Military now controls some the largest and most productive farmland in Europe.

And the Ruble remains strong because Russia is insisting on taking payments in Rubles, and Europe agrees or will freeze to death this winter.

[mcv]

Europe is working hard on getting their energy from other sources. And once they've done that, they're not going back to Russian gas. In the long term, this is absolutely a loss for Russia.

[baobob]

Germany will not build any new LNG terminals when in a few short years they can just resume buying from the cheapest seller, before the first new terminal has even finished being constructed.

Simultaneously Russia is not stupid enough to completely cut off the gas and trigger a total crisis. They are pulling on the chains but they understand the risk to the relationship just as well as you do. Don't forget all the gas supply shortages to date have been justified in terms of required maintenances and problems due to western sanctions. That's paving a route for resumption of normal relations between both parties at a later date with no loss of face for either party.

[Workaccount2]

Russia controls the most valuable portion of Ukraine right now. Going after Kiev was a win/win for Russia because it allowed them to capture the southern coast and maybe even gave them the country (it didn't).

Unless Ukraine retakes the southern coast, Russia will have achieved their main objective.

[mcv]

> If the Russian Federation were to balkanize into smaller states, the Chinese leaders certainly wouldn't mind.

There's some territory there that the USSR took from China back when China was weak. Once those roles are reversed, who's to say China won't start looking in that direction?

[orlandrescu]

Nukes. Nukes will say that.

[jasonwatkinspdx]

Re the Russian economy and the Ruble in particular I'd strongly suggest reading the recent Yale paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193

[saberdancer]

Currency is propped up - easy to fall.

They have shown themselves to be blackmailers with energy - no one will trust them again. The war will make Europe less dependent on Russian energy.

Steady gains - I wouldn't say so as they had to retreat from the whole northern Ukraine. In my opinion, Russia lost the war after first week or two. They bet everything on quick collapse of Ukrainian army and now that it did not happen, they are in a war they want to fight with peacetime army against an 40 million country that is fully mobilizing. It's a losing fight for Russia.

How much aid did China send to Russia? Answer is very little to none.

Reason why I feel Russia will collapse is that usually after major defeats, empires fall. We have various factions already jockeying for position and I bet that people like Kadyrov wouldn't mind carving their own part of Russia (independent Chechnya). After Russia depletes their army and manpower in a futile war against Ukraine we can see various other national movements come up. Especially if/when Putin dies.

[dotopotoro]

Russia’s relation with China will not be that of equals.

Russia will be just a gas station to China. And China being more authoritarian, will not be such easy target for kgb as Scholz/Merkel/Schroeder were.

[pier25]

I imagine as the world moves towards clean energy they won't find customers for oil and gas.

Can Russia survive with their grain exports? I doubt it.

[PurpleRamen]

> Their currency is stronger than before the war (despite internal fragility)

Stronger than before the war, but weaker than some years ago. Russia is declining for a long time now, this war is just a last struggle.

> They have the entire continent of Europe by the balls on oil/gas

No, they have not. They lost them. Everyone is switching to new suppliers, while speeding up their movement to alternatives. And this did not happen because of the war. Moving to greener technology happens for some time now, 2019 it got a new boost, and the war only gave it another boost. With more than half of their export being a dated resource, Russia had an obvious problem pending on them.

> They've made an absolute killing in the energy sector this year due to the fear and scarcity they have created.

They made a short term win by burning their long term gains. They paid very hard with all the restrictions they received, and all the trust they lost.

> They're making steady gains in their war in Ukraine

You mean, steady gains backward? They are losing the war. They lost most of the territory they gained in the early days, and have now barely more than they had before the war.

> They have the ear and economic heart of China

Having an ear without the backing is useless. They can't push nearly as much to China than they sold to Europe. And china is switching to greener energy too. Russia's other products have little value for china. Not enough to compensate for the loss. Though, maybe enough to hold the country alive.

The thing is, overall economical, Russia is an old country with a dying market. A dinosaur who failed to adept to the future. And they burned every ground with those who could help them transform into a better form. But truly, a collapse does not depend on economy alone. Russia seems to have a population accustomed to suffering, and indoctrinated with Putin's nonsense. So quite likely that the country will remain as it is for the moment. But until some significant change will happen, the country will remain in a very stressed state, with a chance for collapse always being around.