[whyoh]

>but, AFAICT, it is 1:1 correlated with the set of countries that have strong avoidance of tanning / strong interest in skin-whitening.

I'm not seeing that. The countries that are most into avoidance of tanning are probably in Southern Asia, or Asia in general. Their birth rates are not that low, with the exception of Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan.

[derefr]

The middle-class urban populations of these countries really liking lighter skin doesn't imply that the country as a whole will have light skin, though. Achieving that also requires that most of the country be middle-class and urban — being in the set of people who both have time to take care of their skin, and don't spend all day working outdoors in the sun in a way which will unavoidably result in tanning no matter how much sunscreen they use. This is true in Japan / South Korea / Taiwan; but not in these other countries, yet.

You can see it happening in China right now (which also culturally has a preference for lighter skin), as the last few decades of infrastructure build-up have led to a new generation whose parents are lower-class farmers but who are themselves middle-class white-collar workers. My hypothesis would predict a lower birth-rate among this cohort, while the previous generation's birth rate remains high.